The Effect of Elections on Postconflict Peace and Reconstruction

• Published in: The Journal of politics Vol. 74; no. 2; pp. 558 - 570
• Main Authors: Flores, Thomas Edward, Nooruddin, Irfan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York, USA Cambridge University Press 01-04-2012; University of Chicago Press
• Subjects: Armed conflict; Civil wars; Conflict; Credible commitment; Democracy; Economic Models; Economic recovery; Elections; Peace; Peace negotiations; Political behavior; Political candidates; Political elections; Political violence; Politicians; Reconstruction; Violence; War conflict
• ISSN: 0022-3816; 1468-2508
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022381611001733

Elections are the centerpiece of efforts to rehabilitate countries devastated by civil conflict, and they are held increasingly often and early. We argue that the inability of postconflict politicians to commit credibly to respect peace and democracy implies that elections will inflame tensions unless countries have previous democratic experience or elections are delayed to allow for institution building. We test this theoretical framework with a statistical model of economic recovery and conflict recurrence. We show that early elections, particularly in new democracies, hasten recurrence; delaying elections two years in new democracies or one year in more established democracies can help forestall renewed violence.