How can Changes in the Human‐Flood Distance Mitigate Flood Fatalities and Displacements?

• Published in: Geophysical research letters Vol. 50; no. 20
• Main Authors: Wang, Ning, Sun, Fubao, Koutsoyiannis, Demetris, Iliopoulou, Theano, Wang, Tingting, Wang, Hong, Liu, Wenbin, Sargentis, G.‐Fivos, Dimitriadis, Panayiotis
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington John Wiley & Sons, Inc 28-10-2023; Wiley
• Subjects: Adaptive control; Distance; Fatalities; Flood control; Flood management; Flood protection; Floods; Hurricanes; Ice jams; Mortality; Middle East
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1029/2023GL105064

Comprehending the correlation between alterations in human‐flood distance and flood fatalities (as well as displacements) is pivotal for formulating effective human adaptive strategies in response to floods. However, this relationship remains inadequately explored in existing global analyses. To address this gap, we examine 910 flood events occurring from 2000 to 2018, resulting in significant numbers of fatalities and displacements. We find that in 53% of countries, humans tend to distance from floods, particularly in the Middle East. Such distancing greatly mitigates flood fatalities and displacements. Simultaneously, in areas with increased flood protection level (FPL), humans are less likely to move away from floods. Furthermore, FPL and human‐flood distance have decreased in regions affected by ice jam‐ and hurricane‐induced floods from 2000 to 2018. Notably, regions with human‐flood distance slightly below the average for a given flood type experience more severe flood fatalities.
Plain Language Summary
People have developed effective ways (i.e., distancing from flood and increasing flood protection level) to adapt and minimize the impact of catastrophic floods on exposed populations. However, the relationship between these behaviors and flood fatalities (as well as displacements) is not well understood on a global scale. To address this knowledge gap, we study 910 flood events that occurred between 2000 and 2018, leading to significant fatalities and displacements. We find that in 53% of countries, people tend to move away from flood‐affected areas, especially in the Middle East. This distancing behavior greatly reduces the number of fatalities and displaced individuals caused by floods. Additionally, in areas with higher flood protection level, people are less likely to relocate away from floods. Over the studied period, both flood protection levels and the distance between humans and flood‐prone areas have decreased in regions affected by ice jam‐ and hurricane‐induced floods. Importantly, regions where the distance between humans and floods is slightly below the average for a given flood type experience more severe flood fatalities. These findings could help improve the efficiency of flood control management and the adoption of adaptive policies.
Key Points
53% of countries witnessed humans distancing themselves from floods between 2000 and 2018, especially those in the Middle East
Humans distancing from the floods leads to a substantial reduction in both flood fatalities and flood displaced population
Humans residing in regions with a high flood protection level tend not to move away from the flood