Current Icing Potential Algorithm Description and Comparison with Aircraft Observations

• Published in: Journal of applied meteorology (1988) Vol. 44; no. 7; pp. 969 - 986
• Main Authors: Bernstein, Ben C., McDonough, Frank, Politovich, Marcia K., Brown, Barbara G., Ratvasky, Thomas P., Miller, Dean R., Wolff, Cory A., Cunning, Gary
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Boston, MA American Meteorological Society 01-07-2005
• Subjects: Air transportation and traffic; Aircraft; Analytical forecasting; Applied sciences; Cloud physics; Clouds; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Freezing; Ground, air and sea transportation, marine construction; Ice formation; Liquids; Meteorological applications; Meteorology; Meteors; Precipitation; Rain; Water drop; Decision tree; Real time system; Fuzzy logic; Airplane; Algorithm performance; Traffic safety; Observation data; Air transportation; Icing; Risk management; Aircraft; Supercooled water
• DOI: 10.1175/JAM2246.1
• EISSN: 1520-0450
• ISSN: 0894-8763

The “current icing potential” (CIP) algorithm combines satellite, radar, surface, lightning, and pilotreport observations with model output to create a detailed three-dimensional hourly diagnosis of the potential for the existence of icing and supercooled large droplets. It uses a physically based situational approach that is derived from basic and applied cloud physics, combined with forecaster and onboard flight experience from field programs. Both fuzzy logic and decision-tree logic are applied in this context. CIP determines the locations of clouds and precipitation and then estimates the potential for the presence of supercooled liquid water and supercooled large droplets within a given airspace. First developed in the winter of 1997/98, CIP became an operational National Weather Service and Federal Aviation Administration product in 2002, providing real-time diagnoses that allow users to make route-specific decisions to avoid potentially hazardous icing. The CIP algorithm, its individual components, and the logic behind them are described.