Opportunities for expanding paddy rice production in Laos: spatial predictive modeling using Random Forest

• Published in: Journal of land use science Vol. 7; no. 1; pp. 21 - 33
• Main Authors: Laborte, Alice G, Maunahan, Aileen A, Hijmans, Robert J
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Abingdon Taylor & Francis 01-03-2012; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Agricultural production; crop production; ecosystems; Laos; lowland rice; paddies; paddy; Random Forest; Rice; roads; topographic slope; upland rice; villages
• ISSN: 1747-4248; 1747-423X; 1747-4248
• DOI: 10.1080/1747423X.2010.519788

To meet the growing demand for rice and to ease the pressure on mountain ecosystems in northern Laos, it has been proposed to reduce upland rice cultivation and to expand the area under paddy rice. We used Random Forest, a classification and decision-tree-based method, to characterize the areas currently under paddy cultivation, and to predict which areas are suitable for paddy. Topographic variables and accessibility to villages and roads were the most important predictors for the presence of paddy cultivation. There appears to be much land available that is suitable for expanding paddy areas in central and southern Laos but not in the north, where more than 40% of the rice area is on sloping land, and much less area is suitable. We conclude that expanding paddy-based rice production will be difficult in most parts of northern Laos.