Democracy under the Gun: Understanding Postconflict Economic Recovery

• Published in: The Journal of conflict resolution Vol. 53; no. 1; pp. 3 - 29
• Main Authors: Flores, Thomas Edward, Nooruddin, Irfan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Los Angeles, CA Sage Publications 01-02-2009; SAGE Publications; SAGE PUBLICATIONS, INC
• Subjects: Armed conflict; Civil War; Civil wars; Conflict; Conflict resolution; Credible commitment; Democracy; Democratization; Economic Development; Economic recovery; Economic transitions; Financial investments; Intellectuals; Investment; Investments; Peace; Peacetime; Political conflict; Political Institutions; Political stability; Politicians; Politics; Post-conflict societies; Recidivism; Reconstruction; Violence; Democratization; Democracy; Conflict Recurrence; Civil Conflict; Recovery
• ISSN: 0022-0027; 1552-8766
• DOI: 10.1177/0022002708326745

Increasingly, scholars studying civil conflicts believe that the pace of postconflict economic recovery is crucial to a return to peaceful politics. But why do some countries' economies recover more quickly than others'? The authors argue that the inability of politicians to commit credibly to postconflict peace inhibits investment and, hence, slows recovery. In turn, the ability of political actors to eschew further violence credibly depends on postconflict political institutions. The authors test this framework with duration analysis of an original data set of economic recovery, with two key results. First, they find that postconflict democratization retards recovery. Second, outright military victory sets the stage for a longer peace than negotiated settlements do. This research deepens the understanding of the bases of economic recovery and conflict recidivism in postconflict countries and points to future research that can augment this knowledge further still.