The Use and Role of Predictive Systems in Disease Management

• Published in: Annual review of phytopathology Vol. 51; no. 1; pp. 267 - 289
• Main Authors: GENT, David H, MAHAFFEE, Walter F, McROBERTS, Neil, PFENDER, William F
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Palo Alto, CA Annual Reviews 01-01-2013
• Subjects: Agriculture - trends; Algorithms; Biological and medical sciences; Crops, Agricultural - microbiology; Forecasting; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Models, Theoretical; Phytopathology. Animal pests. Plant and forest protection; Plant Diseases - prevention & control; Risk; Plant pathology; IPM adoption; Disease; Plant pathogen; Pest and disease control; Prediction; diffusion theory; disease forecasting; Review; Disease management; Forecasting; System; disease control; Diffusion; Integrated pest management; Adoption
• DOI: 10.1146/annurev-phyto-082712-102356
• EISSN: 1545-2107
• ISSN: 0066-4286

Disease predictive systems are intended to be management aids. With a few exceptions, these systems typically do not have direct sustained use by growers. Rather, their impact is mostly pedagogic and indirect, improving recommendations from farm advisers and shaping management concepts. The degree to which a system is consulted depends on the amount of perceived new, actionable information that is consistent with the objectives of the user. Often this involves avoiding risks associated with costly disease outbreaks. Adoption is sensitive to the correspondence between the information a system delivers and the information needed to manage a particular pathosystem at an acceptable financial risk; details of the approach used to predict disease risk are less important. The continuing challenge for researchers is to construct tools relevant to farmers and their advisers that improve upon their current management skill. This goal requires an appreciation of growers' decision calculus in managing disease problems and, more broadly, their overall farm enterprise management.