A Novel Method for Modeling and Predicting Transportation Data Via Multideep Assessment Methodology and Fractional Calculus

• Published in: Transport and telecommunication Vol. 25; no. 2; pp. 136 - 149
• Main Authors: Şimşek, Kevser, Tuğrul, Nisa Özge Önal, Çam, İlhan, Karaçuha, Kamil, Tabatadze, Vasıl, Karaçuha, Ertuğrul
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Riga Sciendo 15-04-2024; De Gruyter Poland
• Subjects: Air cargo; Air transportation; applied mathematics; Aviation; deep assessment methodology; Fractional calculus; Methodology; modeling; Modelling; time series prediction
• ISSN: 1407-6179; 1407-6160; 1407-6179
• DOI: 10.2478/ttj-2024-0010

Aviation is one of the most global industries, and if we can model and predict a country’s air transportation flow and indicators ahead of time, we may be able to use it as a key decision-making tool for the management and operation process. This study proposes a new modeling, and prediction method that employs both fractional calculus and Multi Deep Assessment Methodology (MDAM) techniques. For the application, air passengers carried, air freight, available seat kilometers, number of flights, destination points, international travelers, international destination points, and international flight data between 2011 and 2019 for eight countries with the busiest airports were chosen. As a result, the highest modeling error was discovered to be Germany’s air transport freight factor expressed as a percentage of 1,59E-02. The percentage of predictions with errors less than 10% was 90.278. We also compared the performance of two different MDAM methodologies. The novel MDAM wd methodology proposed in this paper has a higher accuracy in aviation factors prediction and modeling.