The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on global financial markets
On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded the Ukraine. In this paper, we analyze the response of European and global stock markets alongside a representative sample of commodities. We compare the war response against the recent Covid-19 pandemic and the not-too-distant 2008 global financial crisis. Apply...
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Published in: | International review of financial analysis Vol. 87; p. 102598 |
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01-05-2023
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Abstract | On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded the Ukraine. In this paper, we analyze the response of European and global stock markets alongside a representative sample of commodities. We compare the war response against the recent Covid-19 pandemic and the not-too-distant 2008 global financial crisis. Applying a Markov-switching HAR model on volatility proxies, estimates are made of synchronization, duration and intensity measures for each event. In broad terms, stock markets and commodities respond most rapidly to the Russian invasion; and post-invasion crisis intensity is noticeably smaller compared to both the Covid-19 and the GFC. Wheat and nickel are the most affected commodities due to the prominent exporter status of the two countries.
•We analyse stock market and commodity reaction to the Russian-Ukrainian war.•We compare synchronization, duration and intensity of the war to other crises.•Financial markets responded earlier to the war event than either the GFC or Covid-19.•Intensity metrics, show the war to be muted compared to the GFC or Covid-19.•High crisis intensity reveals ongoing pressure to commodities. |
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AbstractList | On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded the Ukraine. In this paper, we analyze the response of European and global stock markets alongside a representative sample of commodities. We compare the war response against the recent Covid-19 pandemic and the not-too-distant 2008 global financial crisis. Applying a Markov-switching HAR model on volatility proxies, estimates are made of synchronization, duration and intensity measures for each event. In broad terms, stock markets and commodities respond most rapidly to the Russian invasion; and post-invasion crisis intensity is noticeably smaller compared to both the Covid-19 and the GFC. Wheat and nickel are the most affected commodities due to the prominent exporter status of the two countries.
•We analyse stock market and commodity reaction to the Russian-Ukrainian war.•We compare synchronization, duration and intensity of the war to other crises.•Financial markets responded earlier to the war event than either the GFC or Covid-19.•Intensity metrics, show the war to be muted compared to the GFC or Covid-19.•High crisis intensity reveals ongoing pressure to commodities. |
ArticleNumber | 102598 |
Author | Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur Sivaprasad, Sheeja Petropoulou, Athina Izzeldin, Marwan Pappas, Vasileios |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Marwan surname: Izzeldin fullname: Izzeldin, Marwan email: m.izzeldin@lancaster.ac.uk organization: Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YW, UK – sequence: 2 givenname: Yaz Gülnur surname: Muradoğlu fullname: Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur email: y.g.muradoglu@qmul.ac.uk organization: Queen Mary University of London, E1 4NS UK – sequence: 3 givenname: Vasileios surname: Pappas fullname: Pappas, Vasileios email: v.pappas@kent.ac.uk organization: University of Kent, Kent ME4 4TE, UK – sequence: 4 givenname: Athina surname: Petropoulou fullname: Petropoulou, Athina email: ap102@soas.ac.uk organization: SOAS University of London, WC1H 0XG, UK – sequence: 5 givenname: Sheeja surname: Sivaprasad fullname: Sivaprasad, Sheeja email: s.sivaprasad@westminster.ac.uk organization: University of Westminster, London NW1 5LS, UK |
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Keywords | Ukraine war Financial markets C24 Markov switching Commodities HAR G15 |
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SubjectTerms | Commodities Financial markets HAR Markov switching Ukraine war |
Title | The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on global financial markets |
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