Classification Trees for Decision Making in the Social Services with Application to Welfare Recidivism

• Published in: Journal of social service research Vol. 27; no. 3; pp. 23 - 40
• Main Authors: Roback, Paul J., Welch, Shawn M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: St. Louis, MO Taylor & Francis Group 01-01-2001; Haworth Press
• Subjects: CART; Claimants; Classification; classification tree; Decision making; Evaluation; prediction; Recidivism; Social problems and social policy. Social work; Social services departments; Social Work; Sociology; USA; Welfare benefits; Welfare Services; Welfarerecidivism; United States Of America; Decision Making; Comparison; Social work; Classification; Prediction; Recidivism; Social welfare; Tree; Identification; Statistical Model; New Method; Social Service
• ISSN: 0148-8376; 1540-7314
• DOI: 10.1300/J079v27n03_02

This article introduces classification trees as aviable alternative for classification modeling with social service data. As an empirical application of tree-based methods, the performance of a classification tree is com pared to logistic regression in the identification of recidivistic welfare cases. Classification trees offer statistical advantages such as an ability to in corporate all types of predietor variables and to account for complex nonadditive behavior. This allows easy interpretability and the identification of specific profiles of likely recidivist cases. In general, classification trees such as the one in this study can be developed as empirical guidelines to aiddecision making for a wide range of social work issues.