Freeway Travel Time Prediction Using Takagi-Sugeno-Kang Fuzzy Neural Network

• Published in: Computer-aided civil and infrastructure engineering Vol. 28; no. 8; pp. 594 - 603
• Main Authors: Zhang, Yunlong, Ge, Hancheng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01-09-2013
• Subjects: Artificial neural networks; Freeways; Fuzzy logic; Mathematical models; Networks; Neural networks; On-line systems; Online
• ISSN: 1093-9687; 1467-8667
• DOI: 10.1111/mice.12014

This article presents a Takagi–Sugeno–Kang Fuzzy Neural Network (TSKFNN) approach to predict freeway corridor travel time with an online computing algorithm. TSKFNN, a combination of a Takagi–Sugeno–Kang (TSK) type fuzzy logic system and a neural network, produces strong prediction performance because of its high accuracy and quick convergence. Real world data collected from US‐290 in Houston, Texas are used to train and validate the network. The prediction performance of the TSKFNN is investigated with different combinations of traffic count, occupancy, and speed as input options. The comparison between online TSKFNN, offline TSKFNN, the back propagation neural network (BPNN) and the time series model (ARIMA) is made to evaluate the performance of TSKFNN. The results show that using count, speed, and occupancy together as input produces the best TSKFNN predictions. The online TSKFNN outperforms other commonly used models and is a promising tool for reliable travel time prediction on a freeway corridor.