Capturing Swiss economic confidence

Survey data can offer timely information on the current state of the economy and its short-term outlook. In this paper, we propose a “Swiss Economic Confidence Index” (SEC). This is a monthly indicator based on aggregating a selection of individual survey indicators, which we show to have favorable...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik Vol. 160; no. 1; pp. 3 - 17
Main Authors:	Wegmueller, Philipp, Glocker, Christian
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Cham Springer International Publishing 01-12-2024 Springer Nature B.V SpringerOpen
Subjects:	Business cycle index Economic sentiment Economics Economics and Finance Forecasting GDP Gross Domestic Product Nowcasting Polls & surveys Real time SJES Data SJES Data Stream Statistics Switzerland Time out Switzerland C53 C55 C32 E32 C38 Economic sentiment Switzerland Business cycle index Nowcasting
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Summary:	Survey data can offer timely information on the current state of the economy and its short-term outlook. In this paper, we propose a “Swiss Economic Confidence Index” (SEC). This is a monthly indicator based on aggregating a selection of individual survey indicators, which we show to have favorable leading properties. Applying simple criteria, we select those surveys from a set of currently more than 250 sentiment indicators. We show that the SEC index provides useful signals on GDP growth in a number of real-time out-of-sample forecasting exercises.
ISSN:	2235-6282 2235-6282
DOI:	10.1186/s41937-024-00120-7