2021 UK floods: improvements and recommendations from the flood forecasting centre

• Published in: Hydrology Research Vol. 54; no. 12; pp. 1477 - 1489
• Main Authors: Pilling, Charles, Millard, Jon, Perez, Julia, Egan, Katie, Turner, Russell, Duke, Anthony
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London IWA Publishing 01-12-2023
• Subjects: Climate change; Communication; Convection; Environmental risk; extremes; flood; Flood forecasting; Flood risk; Flooding; Floods; Lead time; Rain; Risk communication; Surface water; User feedback; Weather forecasting; United Kingdom > UK; England; Wales
• ISSN: 0029-1277; 1998-9563; 2224-7955
• DOI: 10.2166/nh.2023.023

Abstract
In recognition of the increased risk to national resilience from flooding, we provide an overview of recent and future improvements to flood risk forecasting and communication at the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC). We draw on the analysis of fluvial and surface water flooding across England and Wales in 2021 to highlight these areas of improvement. Already implemented improvements in both the underpinning science and our long lead-time product are described in the context of high-magnitude, high-impact floods. In addition, we consider more substantial developments from improved modelling of convection to translating this to surface water flood risk and to the essential communication and service provision. Finally, recognising that many of the challenges are shared internationally, we distil our key recommendations for future improvement. These improvements rely on collaboration for them to be successful.