Participating in a climate futures market increases support for costly climate policies

• Published in: Nature climate change Vol. 13; no. 6; pp. 511 - 512
• Main Authors: Cerf, Moran, Matz, Sandra C., MacIver, Malcolm A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 01-06-2023; Nature Publishing Group
• Subjects: 706/648/453; 706/689/694; Climate action; Climate Change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climate policy; Climate prediction; Earth and Environmental Science; Environment; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice; Environmental policy; Environmental risk; Future climates; Futures market; Money; Policies; Policy Brief; Policy making; Prediction markets; Predictions; Privacy; Social groups
• ISSN: 1758-678X; 1758-6798
• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01677-6

A large gap exists between the concerns over the risks of climate change and the support needed for effective climate actions. We show that participating in a market where individuals make predictions on future climate outcomes and earn money can change climate attitudes, behaviour and knowledge.
Recommendations for policy
Participation in a climate prediction market, where individuals make bets on outcomes and earn money when they are correct, results in more climate concern, support and knowledge.
Climate prediction markets can be used by policymakers as a highly accurate polling mechanism.
The market, at scale, can infuse private money into climate efforts. It can act as an exchange where those who hold inaccurate beliefs sponsor policies with the money they lose.
The market allows policymakers to leverage the wisdom of the crowd to estimate future outcomes based on current bet values. Thus, it ameliorates the brain’s challenge in valuing distant consequences.
The market acts as an agreed-upon referee and, through its anonymity, protects social standing in groups where alignment with science on politicized issues results in exclusion.