A Hybrid Nonlinear Forecasting Strategy for Short-Term Wind Speed

• Published in: Energies (Basel) Vol. 13; no. 7; p. 1596
• Main Authors: Zhao, Xin, Wei, Haikun, Li, Chenxi, Zhang, Kanjian
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01-04-2020
• Subjects: Alternative energy sources; Autoregressive models; Autoregressive processes; Confidence intervals; Covariance; Forecasting; Gaussian process; Goal programming; Kalman filters; Machine learning; Noise; Noise prediction; Prediction models; Security; Short term; short-term wind speed prediction; state space equation; State space models; unscented Kalman filter; Wind; Wind farms; Wind power; Wind speed
• ISSN: 1996-1073; 1996-1073
• DOI: 10.3390/en13071596

The ability to predict wind speeds is very important for the security and stability of wind farms and power system operations. Wind speeds typically vary slowly over time, which makes them difficult to forecast. In this study, a hybrid nonlinear estimation approach combining Gaussian process (GP) and unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is proposed to predict dynamic changes of wind speed and improve forecasting accuracy. The proposed approach can provide both point and interval predictions for wind speed. Firstly, the GP method is established as the nonlinear transition function of a state space model, and the covariance obtained from the GP predictive model is used as the process noise. Secondly, UKF is used to solve the state space model and update the initial prediction of short-term wind speed. The proposed hybrid approach can adjust dynamically in conjunction with the distribution changes. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed hybrid approach, the persistence model, GP model, autoregressive (AR) model, and AR integrated with Kalman filter (KF) model are used to predict the results for comparison. Taking two wind farms in China and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) database as the experimental data, the results show that the proposed hybrid approach is suitable for wind speed predictions, and that it can increase forecasting accuracy.