Back calculation and hazard prediction of a debris flow in Wenchuan meizoseismal area, China

On August 20, 2019, many catastrophic debris flows broke out in meizoseismal area of Wenchuan M s 8.0 earthquake in China under the influence of continuous heavy rainfall. This paper takes the Chutou gully debris flow event occurred on August 20, 2019 as an example. The 3-D numerical simulation soft...

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Published in:	Bulletin of engineering geology and the environment Vol. 80; no. 4; pp. 3457 - 3474
Main Authors:	Liu, Bo, Hu, Xiewen, Ma, Guotao, He, Kun, Wu, Mingyan, Liu, Dingyi
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01-04-2021
Subjects:	Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Foundations Geoecology/Natural Processes Geoengineering Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Hydraulics Nature Conservation Original Paper Debris flow Back calculation RAMMS Salm Numerical simulation Voellmy Hazard prediction
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Abstract	On August 20, 2019, many catastrophic debris flows broke out in meizoseismal area of Wenchuan M s 8.0 earthquake in China under the influence of continuous heavy rainfall. This paper takes the Chutou gully debris flow event occurred on August 20, 2019 as an example. The 3-D numerical simulation software, RAMMS, is used to back calculate the event and predict the future hazard. Coulomb and viscous turbulent friction, μ and ξ are calibrated in RAMMS. Numerical simulation reveals the movement process of Chutou gully from the aspects of flow depth, velocity, discharge, and run-out solid materials volume. The simulation results show that more than two-thirds of the solid materials are still deposited in the main channel, which could provide material basis for the re-occurrence of high hazard debris flow. In addition, based on the intensity and probability of debris flow, the hazard of debris flow is divided into high, middle, and low degrees. According to the simulation results and hazard assessment model, the hazard map of Chutou gully debris flow in various rainstorm return periods (20, 50, 100, and 200 years) is established, which can provide guidance for the future land-use planning and debris flow prevention works.
AbstractList	On August 20, 2019, many catastrophic debris flows broke out in meizoseismal area of Wenchuan M s 8.0 earthquake in China under the influence of continuous heavy rainfall. This paper takes the Chutou gully debris flow event occurred on August 20, 2019 as an example. The 3-D numerical simulation software, RAMMS, is used to back calculate the event and predict the future hazard. Coulomb and viscous turbulent friction, μ and ξ are calibrated in RAMMS. Numerical simulation reveals the movement process of Chutou gully from the aspects of flow depth, velocity, discharge, and run-out solid materials volume. The simulation results show that more than two-thirds of the solid materials are still deposited in the main channel, which could provide material basis for the re-occurrence of high hazard debris flow. In addition, based on the intensity and probability of debris flow, the hazard of debris flow is divided into high, middle, and low degrees. According to the simulation results and hazard assessment model, the hazard map of Chutou gully debris flow in various rainstorm return periods (20, 50, 100, and 200 years) is established, which can provide guidance for the future land-use planning and debris flow prevention works.
Author	Liu, Dingyi Liu, Bo Wu, Mingyan Ma, Guotao Hu, Xiewen He, Kun
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Bo surname: Liu fullname: Liu, Bo organization: Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University – sequence: 2 givenname: Xiewen surname: Hu fullname: Hu, Xiewen organization: Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University – sequence: 3 givenname: Guotao orcidid: 0000-0001-9783-413X surname: Ma fullname: Ma, Guotao email: maguotao46@yahoo.com organization: Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, School of Engineering, University of Warwick – sequence: 4 givenname: Kun surname: He fullname: He, Kun organization: Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University – sequence: 5 givenname: Mingyan surname: Wu fullname: Wu, Mingyan organization: School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Chongqing University – sequence: 6 givenname: Dingyi surname: Liu fullname: Liu, Dingyi organization: Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University
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Cites_doi	10.1007/s11629-014-3100-7 10.1007/s10346-017-0824-9 10.5194/essd-11-35-2019 10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.10.002 10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.01.012 10.5194/nhess-6-155-2006 10.1201/b17034-188 10.1007/s10346-007-0102-3 10.1007/s10346-007-0099-7 10.1007/s10346-011-0269-5 10.1017/S0022112089000340 10.12989/gae.2015.8.6.811 10.32604/cmes.2019.07337 10.1007/s10346-008-0137-0 10.1007/s10064-018-1359-6 10.1007/s002540050300 10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.05.011 10.1007/s12665-015-5031-1 10.1007/s10346-008-0125-4 10.1007/s10346-014-0484-y 10.1016/j.enggeo.2011.07.003 10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.01.018 10.1002/hyp.7369 10.1016/j.coldregions.2010.04.005 10.1017/S002214300000174X 10.1007/s10346-020-01532-1 10.1007/s10064-017-1006-7 10.5194/nhess-17-801-2017 10.1016/j.enggeo.2020.105582 10.1007/s10596-005-9021-3 10.1007/s10346-017-0796-9 10.1029/2018RG000626 10.1007/s10346-020-01571-8 10.1016/S0013-7952(03)00125-X
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Snippet	On August 20, 2019, many catastrophic debris flows broke out in meizoseismal area of Wenchuan M s 8.0 earthquake in China under the influence of continuous...
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SubjectTerms	Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Foundations Geoecology/Natural Processes Geoengineering Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Hydraulics Nature Conservation Original Paper
Title	Back calculation and hazard prediction of a debris flow in Wenchuan meizoseismal area, China
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