Methodology for Maritime Risk Assessment in Ports due to Meteo‐oceanographic Factors: The Case of the port of Suape, Brazil

• Published in: Risk analysis Vol. 41; no. 10; pp. 1823 - 1839
• Main Authors: Azevêdo, Lucas, Duarte, Heitor, Galvão, Daniel, Michima, Paula, Veleda, Doris, Kreuger, Alexander
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01-10-2021
• Subjects: Accidents; Dispersal; Dredging; Environmental statistics; Hazard assessment; Information management; Maneuverability; Meteo‐oceanographic analysis; Methodology; Oil spills; oil tanker accident; pilotage waters; Ports; Research methodology; Risk assessment; Risk management; Safety; Ships; Statistical analysis; Suape port; Tanker ships; Tankers; Weather; Brazil; pilotage waters; risk assessment; Meteo-oceanographic analysis; oil tanker accident; Suape port
• ISSN: 0272-4332; 1539-6924
• DOI: 10.1111/risa.13677

Exploring the effects of meteo‐oceanographic (MO) events on ships’ maneuverability and safety has great potential, since most maritime accidents occur in confined waters, where the speed of ships is low, and the forces of wind and current on ships have particular importance. Therefore, we put forward a methodology that will be used to qualify and classify the risks caused by MO factors to how ships maneuver, dock or undock in a port. The objective is to generate important information for managing risk. The methodology is validated and illustrated step‐by‐step by applying it in Suape, one of the most important ports in Brazil, where the docking of larger tankers (e.g., Suezmax) was not allowed until recently when dredging was done to fit the specifications of such ships, thereby expanding the port's operations. MO data on Suape were collected and recorded from September 2016 to November 2017 and used for the application. Based on expert opinion and discussion with a Suape pilot, 36 accidental scenarios (ASs) were identified and categorized using preliminary hazard analysis. From these, the seven most severe ASs were selected so as to assess in more detail the frequency and consequences of accidents on human health, the environment, and property, for which the MO statistics for the likelihood of an accident and/or dispersal of an oil spill were used. The results show that the methodology is viable to assess risks caused by bad weather and to communicate these to pilots and competent authorities, thus improving the safety of operations.