Redesigning harvest strategies for sustainable fishery management in the face of extreme environmental variability
Short‐lived, fast‐growing species that contribute greatly to global capture fisheries are sensitive to fluctuations in the environment. Uncertainties in exact stock–environment relationships have meant that environmental variability and extremes have been difficult to integrate directly into fisheri...
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Published in: | Conservation biology Vol. 36; no. 3; pp. e13864 - n/a |
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Format: | Journal Article |
Language: | English |
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Blackwell Publishing Ltd
01-06-2022
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Abstract | Short‐lived, fast‐growing species that contribute greatly to global capture fisheries are sensitive to fluctuations in the environment. Uncertainties in exact stock–environment relationships have meant that environmental variability and extremes have been difficult to integrate directly into fisheries management. We applied a management strategy evaluation approach for one of Australia's large prawn stocks to test the robustness of harvest control rules to environmental variability. The model ensemble included coupled environmental‐population models and an alternative catchability scenario fitted to historical catch per unit effort data. We compared the efficacy of alternative management actions to conserve marine resources under a variable environment while accounting for fisher livelihoods. Model fits to catch per unit effort were reasonably good and similar across operating models (OMs). For models that were coupled to the environment, environmental parameters for El Niño years were estimated with good associated precision, and OM3 had a lower AIC score (77.61) than the base model (OM1, 80.39), whereas OM2 (AIC 82.41) had a similar AIC score, suggesting the OMs were all plausible model alternatives. Our model testing resulted in a plausible subset of management options, and stakeholders selected a permanent closure of the first fishing season based on overall performance of this option; ability to reduce the risk of fishery closure and stock collapse; robustness to uncertainties; and ease of implementation. Our simulation approach enabled the selection of an optimal yet pragmatic solution for addressing economic and conservation objectives under a variable environment with extreme events.
Rediseño de las Estrategias de Captura para el Manejo de Pesquerías Sustentables de Caraa una Variabilidad Ambiental Extrema
Resumen
Las especies de vida corta y rápido crecimiento que contribuyen enormemente a la captura mundial de las pesquerías son sensibles a las fluctuaciones en el ambiente. La incertidumbre en torno a las relaciones exactas entre el ambiente y el stock ha representado una dificultad para integrar directamente la variabilidad y los extremos ambientales a la gestión de las pesquerías. Aplicamos un enfoque de evaluación de estrategia de manejo (EEM) para uno de los stocks de camarones de Australia y así analizar la solidez de las reglas de control de captura para la variabilidad ambiental. El ensamblado modelo incluyó modelos ambientales‐poblacionales emparejados y un escenario alternativo de capturabilidad ajustado a los datos históricos de esfuerzo de captura por unidad. Comparamos la eficiencia de acciones alternativas de manejo para conservar los recursos marinos bajo un ambiente variable teniendo en cuenta el sustento de los pescadores. Los ajustes del modelo para el esfuerzo de captura por unidad fueron razonablemente buenos y similares en los modelos operantes (MO). Para los modelos que estuvieron emparejados con el ambiente, los parámetros ambientales para los años de El Niño estuvieron estimados con una buena precisión asociada, y el MO3 tuvo un puntaje AIC menor (77.61) que el modelo base (MO1, 80.39), mientras que el MO2 (AIC 82.41) tuvo un puntaje AIC similar, lo que sugiere que los MO eran todos modelos plausibles alternativos. Nuestro análisis de los modelos resultó en un subconjunto plausible de opciones de manejo, y los actores seleccionaron un cierre permanente de la primera temporada de pesca con base en el desempeño general de esta opción, la habilidad para reducir el riesgo del cierre de la pesquería y el colapso del stock, la solidez ante las incertidumbres y la facilidad de implementación. Nuestra estrategia de simulación permitió la selección de una solución óptima pero pragmática para abordar los objetivos económicos y de conservación bajo un ambiente variable con eventos extremos.
Article Impact statement: Simulation testing shows a seasonal closure protects fisher livelihoods and the stock in years with extreme environmental conditions.
【摘要】
寿命短、生长快的物种对全球捕捞渔业贡献巨大, 但对环境的波动十分敏感。这些物种种群与环境关系之间的不确定性意味着难以将环境的可变性和极端情况直接纳入渔业管理之中。本研究对澳大利亚的一个大型对虾种群采用了管理策略评估 (MSE) 的方法, 以检验控制捕捞的规则应对环境变化的稳健性。该模型组合包括环境‐种群耦合模型和拟合单位捕捞量渔获的历史数据的可捕量替代方案。我们在考虑渔民生计的同时, 比较了在多变环境下保护海洋资源的替代管理行动的有效性。单位捕捞量渔获的模型拟合结果相当好, 且在不同的操控模型 (operating models, OMs) 中都相近。在与环境耦合的模型中, 厄尔尼诺年的环境参数估算后的关联精度很高, OM3 的 AIC 值 (77.61) 低于基础模型 (OM1, 80.39), 而 OM2(AIC 82.41) 的 AIC 值与 OM1 相近, 表明这些操控模型都是合理的替代选择。我们的模型测试还得到了一部分合理的管理方案, 利益相关者根据管理方案的总体表现、降低渔业关闭和种群崩溃风险的能力、面对不确定性的稳健性以及实施管理的便利性等因素, 选择了在第一个捕捞季永久禁渔。本研究提出的模拟方法使我们能够选择一个最优且实际的解决方案, 从而在可能发生极端事件的可变环境中实现经济和保护目标。 【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】 |
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AbstractList | Abstract
Short‐lived, fast‐growing species that contribute greatly to global capture fisheries are sensitive to fluctuations in the environment. Uncertainties in exact stock–environment relationships have meant that environmental variability and extremes have been difficult to integrate directly into fisheries management. We applied a management strategy evaluation approach for one of Australia's large prawn stocks to test the robustness of harvest control rules to environmental variability. The model ensemble included coupled environmental‐population models and an alternative catchability scenario fitted to historical catch per unit effort data. We compared the efficacy of alternative management actions to conserve marine resources under a variable environment while accounting for fisher livelihoods. Model fits to catch per unit effort were reasonably good and similar across operating models (OMs). For models that were coupled to the environment, environmental parameters for El Niño years were estimated with good associated precision, and OM3 had a lower AIC score (77.61) than the base model (OM1, 80.39), whereas OM2 (AIC 82.41) had a similar AIC score, suggesting the OMs were all plausible model alternatives. Our model testing resulted in a plausible subset of management options, and stakeholders selected a permanent closure of the first fishing season based on overall performance of this option; ability to reduce the risk of fishery closure and stock collapse; robustness to uncertainties; and ease of implementation. Our simulation approach enabled the selection of an optimal yet pragmatic solution for addressing economic and conservation objectives under a variable environment with extreme events.
Rediseño de las Estrategias de Captura para el Manejo de Pesquerías Sustentables de Caraa una Variabilidad Ambiental Extrema
Resumen
Las especies de vida corta y rápido crecimiento que contribuyen enormemente a la captura mundial de las pesquerías son sensibles a las fluctuaciones en el ambiente. La incertidumbre en torno a las relaciones exactas entre el ambiente y el stock ha representado una dificultad para integrar directamente la variabilidad y los extremos ambientales a la gestión de las pesquerías. Aplicamos un enfoque de evaluación de estrategia de manejo (EEM) para uno de los stocks de camarones de Australia y así analizar la solidez de las reglas de control de captura para la variabilidad ambiental. El ensamblado modelo incluyó modelos ambientales‐poblacionales emparejados y un escenario alternativo de capturabilidad ajustado a los datos históricos de esfuerzo de captura por unidad. Comparamos la eficiencia de acciones alternativas de manejo para conservar los recursos marinos bajo un ambiente variable teniendo en cuenta el sustento de los pescadores. Los ajustes del modelo para el esfuerzo de captura por unidad fueron razonablemente buenos y similares en los modelos operantes (MO). Para los modelos que estuvieron emparejados con el ambiente, los parámetros ambientales para los años de El Niño estuvieron estimados con una buena precisión asociada, y el MO3 tuvo un puntaje AIC menor (77.61) que el modelo base (MO1, 80.39), mientras que el MO2 (AIC 82.41) tuvo un puntaje AIC similar, lo que sugiere que los MO eran todos modelos plausibles alternativos. Nuestro análisis de los modelos resultó en un subconjunto plausible de opciones de manejo, y los actores seleccionaron un cierre permanente de la primera temporada de pesca con base en el desempeño general de esta opción, la habilidad para reducir el riesgo del cierre de la pesquería y el colapso del stock, la solidez ante las incertidumbres y la facilidad de implementación. Nuestra estrategia de simulación permitió la selección de una solución óptima pero pragmática para abordar los objetivos económicos y de conservación bajo un ambiente variable con eventos extremos.
Article Impact statement
: Simulation testing shows a seasonal closure protects fisher livelihoods and the stock in years with extreme environmental conditions.
【摘要】
寿命短、生长快的物种对全球捕捞渔业贡献巨大, 但对环境的波动十分敏感。这些物种种群与环境关系之间的不确定性意味着难以将环境的可变性和极端情况直接纳入渔业管理之中。本研究对澳大利亚的一个大型对虾种群采用了管理策略评估 (MSE) 的方法, 以检验控制捕捞的规则应对环境变化的稳健性。该模型组合包括环境‐种群耦合模型和拟合单位捕捞量渔获的历史数据的可捕量替代方案。我们在考虑渔民生计的同时, 比较了在多变环境下保护海洋资源的替代管理行动的有效性。单位捕捞量渔获的模型拟合结果相当好, 且在不同的操控模型 (operating models, OMs) 中都相近。在与环境耦合的模型中, 厄尔尼诺年的环境参数估算后的关联精度很高, OM3 的 AIC 值 (77.61) 低于基础模型 (OM1, 80.39), 而 OM2(AIC 82.41) 的 AIC 值与 OM1 相近, 表明这些操控模型都是合理的替代选择。我们的模型测试还得到了一部分合理的管理方案, 利益相关者根据管理方案的总体表现、降低渔业关闭和种群崩溃风险的能力、面对不确定性的稳健性以及实施管理的便利性等因素, 选择了在第一个捕捞季永久禁渔。本研究提出的模拟方法使我们能够选择一个最优且实际的解决方案, 从而在可能发生极端事件的可变环境中实现经济和保护目标。 【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】 Short‐lived, fast‐growing species that contribute greatly to global capture fisheries are sensitive to fluctuations in the environment. Uncertainties in exact stock–environment relationships have meant that environmental variability and extremes have been difficult to integrate directly into fisheries management. We applied a management strategy evaluation approach for one of Australia's large prawn stocks to test the robustness of harvest control rules to environmental variability. The model ensemble included coupled environmental‐population models and an alternative catchability scenario fitted to historical catch per unit effort data. We compared the efficacy of alternative management actions to conserve marine resources under a variable environment while accounting for fisher livelihoods. Model fits to catch per unit effort were reasonably good and similar across operating models (OMs). For models that were coupled to the environment, environmental parameters for El Niño years were estimated with good associated precision, and OM3 had a lower AIC score (77.61) than the base model (OM1, 80.39), whereas OM2 (AIC 82.41) had a similar AIC score, suggesting the OMs were all plausible model alternatives. Our model testing resulted in a plausible subset of management options, and stakeholders selected a permanent closure of the first fishing season based on overall performance of this option; ability to reduce the risk of fishery closure and stock collapse; robustness to uncertainties; and ease of implementation. Our simulation approach enabled the selection of an optimal yet pragmatic solution for addressing economic and conservation objectives under a variable environment with extreme events. Rediseño de las Estrategias de Captura para el Manejo de Pesquerías Sustentables de Caraa una Variabilidad Ambiental Extrema Resumen Las especies de vida corta y rápido crecimiento que contribuyen enormemente a la captura mundial de las pesquerías son sensibles a las fluctuaciones en el ambiente. La incertidumbre en torno a las relaciones exactas entre el ambiente y el stock ha representado una dificultad para integrar directamente la variabilidad y los extremos ambientales a la gestión de las pesquerías. Aplicamos un enfoque de evaluación de estrategia de manejo (EEM) para uno de los stocks de camarones de Australia y así analizar la solidez de las reglas de control de captura para la variabilidad ambiental. El ensamblado modelo incluyó modelos ambientales‐poblacionales emparejados y un escenario alternativo de capturabilidad ajustado a los datos históricos de esfuerzo de captura por unidad. Comparamos la eficiencia de acciones alternativas de manejo para conservar los recursos marinos bajo un ambiente variable teniendo en cuenta el sustento de los pescadores. Los ajustes del modelo para el esfuerzo de captura por unidad fueron razonablemente buenos y similares en los modelos operantes (MO). Para los modelos que estuvieron emparejados con el ambiente, los parámetros ambientales para los años de El Niño estuvieron estimados con una buena precisión asociada, y el MO3 tuvo un puntaje AIC menor (77.61) que el modelo base (MO1, 80.39), mientras que el MO2 (AIC 82.41) tuvo un puntaje AIC similar, lo que sugiere que los MO eran todos modelos plausibles alternativos. Nuestro análisis de los modelos resultó en un subconjunto plausible de opciones de manejo, y los actores seleccionaron un cierre permanente de la primera temporada de pesca con base en el desempeño general de esta opción, la habilidad para reducir el riesgo del cierre de la pesquería y el colapso del stock, la solidez ante las incertidumbres y la facilidad de implementación. Nuestra estrategia de simulación permitió la selección de una solución óptima pero pragmática para abordar los objetivos económicos y de conservación bajo un ambiente variable con eventos extremos. Article Impact statement: Simulation testing shows a seasonal closure protects fisher livelihoods and the stock in years with extreme environmental conditions. 【摘要】 寿命短、生长快的物种对全球捕捞渔业贡献巨大, 但对环境的波动十分敏感。这些物种种群与环境关系之间的不确定性意味着难以将环境的可变性和极端情况直接纳入渔业管理之中。本研究对澳大利亚的一个大型对虾种群采用了管理策略评估 (MSE) 的方法, 以检验控制捕捞的规则应对环境变化的稳健性。该模型组合包括环境‐种群耦合模型和拟合单位捕捞量渔获的历史数据的可捕量替代方案。我们在考虑渔民生计的同时, 比较了在多变环境下保护海洋资源的替代管理行动的有效性。单位捕捞量渔获的模型拟合结果相当好, 且在不同的操控模型 (operating models, OMs) 中都相近。在与环境耦合的模型中, 厄尔尼诺年的环境参数估算后的关联精度很高, OM3 的 AIC 值 (77.61) 低于基础模型 (OM1, 80.39), 而 OM2(AIC 82.41) 的 AIC 值与 OM1 相近, 表明这些操控模型都是合理的替代选择。我们的模型测试还得到了一部分合理的管理方案, 利益相关者根据管理方案的总体表现、降低渔业关闭和种群崩溃风险的能力、面对不确定性的稳健性以及实施管理的便利性等因素, 选择了在第一个捕捞季永久禁渔。本研究提出的模拟方法使我们能够选择一个最优且实际的解决方案, 从而在可能发生极端事件的可变环境中实现经济和保护目标。 【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】 Short‐lived, fast‐growing species that contribute greatly to global capture fisheries are sensitive to fluctuations in the environment. Uncertainties in exact stock–environment relationships have meant that environmental variability and extremes have been difficult to integrate directly into fisheries management. We applied a management strategy evaluation approach for one of Australia's large prawn stocks to test the robustness of harvest control rules to environmental variability. The model ensemble included coupled environmental‐population models and an alternative catchability scenario fitted to historical catch per unit effort data. We compared the efficacy of alternative management actions to conserve marine resources under a variable environment while accounting for fisher livelihoods. Model fits to catch per unit effort were reasonably good and similar across operating models (OMs). For models that were coupled to the environment, environmental parameters for El Niño years were estimated with good associated precision, and OM3 had a lower AIC score (77.61) than the base model (OM1, 80.39), whereas OM2 (AIC 82.41) had a similar AIC score, suggesting the OMs were all plausible model alternatives. Our model testing resulted in a plausible subset of management options, and stakeholders selected a permanent closure of the first fishing season based on overall performance of this option; ability to reduce the risk of fishery closure and stock collapse; robustness to uncertainties; and ease of implementation. Our simulation approach enabled the selection of an optimal yet pragmatic solution for addressing economic and conservation objectives under a variable environment with extreme events. Short-lived, fast-growing species that contribute greatly to global capture fisheries are sensitive to fluctuations in the environment. Uncertainties in exact stock-environment relationships have meant that environmental variability and extremes have been difficult to integrate directly into fisheries management. We applied a management strategy evaluation approach for one of Australia's large prawn stocks to test the robustness of harvest control rules to environmental variability. The model ensemble included coupled environmental-population models and an alternative catchability scenario fitted to historical catch per unit effort data. We compared the efficacy of alternative management actions to conserve marine resources under a variable environment while accounting for fisher livelihoods. Model fits to catch per unit effort were reasonably good and similar across operating models (OMs). For models that were coupled to the environment, environmental parameters for El Niño years were estimated with good associated precision, and OM3 had a lower AIC score (77.61) than the base model (OM1, 80.39), whereas OM2 (AIC 82.41) had a similar AIC score, suggesting the OMs were all plausible model alternatives. Our model testing resulted in a plausible subset of management options, and stakeholders selected a permanent closure of the first fishing season based on overall performance of this option; ability to reduce the risk of fishery closure and stock collapse; robustness to uncertainties; and ease of implementation. Our simulation approach enabled the selection of an optimal yet pragmatic solution for addressing economic and conservation objectives under a variable environment with extreme events. |
Author | Hutton, Trevor Blamey, Laura K. Plagányi, Éva E. Deng, Roy A. Upston, Judy Jarrett, Annie |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Laura K. orcidid: 0000-0003-3713-091X surname: Blamey fullname: Blamey, Laura K. email: laura.blamey@csiro.au organization: Oceans and Atmosphere – sequence: 2 givenname: Éva E. orcidid: 0000-0002-4740-4200 surname: Plagányi fullname: Plagányi, Éva E. organization: Oceans and Atmosphere – sequence: 3 givenname: Trevor surname: Hutton fullname: Hutton, Trevor organization: Oceans and Atmosphere – sequence: 4 givenname: Roy A. orcidid: 0000-0001-9368-1332 surname: Deng fullname: Deng, Roy A. organization: Oceans and Atmosphere – sequence: 5 givenname: Judy surname: Upston fullname: Upston, Judy organization: Oceans and Atmosphere – sequence: 6 givenname: Annie surname: Jarrett fullname: Jarrett, Annie organization: NPF Industry Pty Ltd |
BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34929068$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_3354_meps14227 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_fishres_2022_106518 crossref_primary_10_1111_exsy_13324 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_fishres_2024_107001 crossref_primary_10_1111_jfb_15741 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_fishres_2022_106516 crossref_primary_10_1139_cjfas_2023_0092 |
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Keywords | southern oscillation index índice 北极甜虾水产业 南方涛动指数 estrategia northern prawn fishery 招募 precautionary approach de camarón de precaución 对虾属(Penaeus) norteño recruitment reclutamiento 澳大利亚 de oscilación Australia Penaeus austral, pesquería 预防方法 |
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Snippet | Short‐lived, fast‐growing species that contribute greatly to global capture fisheries are sensitive to fluctuations in the environment. Uncertainties in exact... Short-lived, fast-growing species that contribute greatly to global capture fisheries are sensitive to fluctuations in the environment. Uncertainties in exact... Abstract Short‐lived, fast‐growing species that contribute greatly to global capture fisheries are sensitive to fluctuations in the environment. Uncertainties... |
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SubjectTerms | austral, pesquería Australia Capture fisheries Catch per unit effort Catchability Conservation of Natural Resources - methods de camarón de oscilación de precaución Economics El Nino El Nino phenomena Environment models Environmental factors estrategia Fisheries Fisheries management Fishery management Freshwater crustaceans Livelihoods Marine crustaceans Marine resources Marine resources management Model testing Models, Theoretical norteño northern prawn fishery Penaeus precautionary approach reclutamiento recruitment Risk reduction Robust control Robustness southern oscillation index Stocks Sustainable fisheries Uncertainty Variability índice 北极甜虾水产业 南方涛动指数 对虾属(Penaeus) 招募 澳大利亚 预防方法 |
Title | Redesigning harvest strategies for sustainable fishery management in the face of extreme environmental variability |
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