Ignorance is not bliss: Statistical power is not probability of trial success

The purpose of this commentary is to place probability of trial success, or assurance, in the context of decision making in drug development, and to illustrate its properties in an intuitive manner for the readers of Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics. The hope is that this will stimulate a dial...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Clinical pharmacology and therapeutics Vol. 99; no. 4; pp. 356 - 359
Main Authors:	Zierhut, ML, Bycott, P, Gibbs, MA, Smith, BP, Vicini, P
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	United States Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01-04-2016
Subjects:	Animals Bayes Theorem Clinical Trials as Topic - statistics & numerical data Data Interpretation, Statistical Drug Discovery - statistics & numerical data Humans Models, Statistical Probability
Online Access:	Get full text
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Summary:	The purpose of this commentary is to place probability of trial success, or assurance, in the context of decision making in drug development, and to illustrate its properties in an intuitive manner for the readers of Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics. The hope is that this will stimulate a dialog on how assurance should be incorporated into a quantitative decision approach for clinical development and trial design that uses all available information.
Bibliography:	ArticleID:CPT257 istex:C183B9255DEDA67358B02DCFF12F34871C152A01 ark:/67375/WNG-4PFZ2H2G-F ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	0009-9236 1532-6535
DOI:	10.1002/cpt.257