Glacier Runoff Variation Since 1981 in the Upper Naryn River Catchments, Central Tien Shan
Water resources in Central Asia strongly depend on glaciers, which in turn adjust their size in response to climate variations. We investigate glacier runoff in the period 1981–2019 in the upper Naryn basin, Kyrgyzstan. The basins contain more than 1,000 glaciers, which cover a total area of 776 km...
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| Published in: | Frontiers in environmental science Vol. 9 |
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| Abstract | Water resources in Central Asia strongly depend on glaciers, which in turn adjust their size in response to climate variations. We investigate glacier runoff in the period 1981–2019 in the upper Naryn basin, Kyrgyzstan. The basins contain more than 1,000 glaciers, which cover a total area of 776 km
2
. We model the mass balance and runoff contribution of all glaciers with a simplified energy balance melt model and distributed accumulation model driven by ERA5 LAND re-analysis data for the time period of 1981–2019. The results are evaluated against discharge records, satellite-derived snow cover, stake readings from individual glaciers, and geodetic mass balances. Modelled glacier volume decreased by approximately 6.7 km
3
or 14%, and the majority of the mass loss took place from 1996 until 2019. The decreasing trend is the result of increasingly negative summer mass balances whereas winter mass balances show no substantial trend. Analysis of the discharge data suggests an increasing runoff for the past two decades, which is, however only partly reflected in an increase of glacier melt. Moreover, the strongest increase in discharge is observed in winter, suggesting either a prolonged melting period and/or increased groundwater discharge. The average runoff from the glacierized areas in summer months (June to August) constitutes approximately 23% of the total contributions to the basin’s runoff. The results highlight the strong regional variability in glacier-climate interactions in Central Asia. |
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| AbstractList | Water resources in Central Asia strongly depend on glaciers, which in turn adjust their size in response to climate variations. We investigate glacier runoff in the period 1981–2019 in the upper Naryn basin, Kyrgyzstan. The basins contain more than 1,000 glaciers, which cover a total area of 776 km2. We model the mass balance and runoff contribution of all glaciers with a simplified energy balance melt model and distributed accumulation model driven by ERA5 LAND re-analysis data for the time period of 1981–2019. The results are evaluated against discharge records, satellite-derived snow cover, stake readings from individual glaciers, and geodetic mass balances. Modelled glacier volume decreased by approximately 6.7 km3 or 14%, and the majority of the mass loss took place from 1996 until 2019. The decreasing trend is the result of increasingly negative summer mass balances whereas winter mass balances show no substantial trend. Analysis of the discharge data suggests an increasing runoff for the past two decades, which is, however only partly reflected in an increase of glacier melt. Moreover, the strongest increase in discharge is observed in winter, suggesting either a prolonged melting period and/or increased groundwater discharge. The average runoff from the glacierized areas in summer months (June to August) constitutes approximately 23% of the total contributions to the basin’s runoff. The results highlight the strong regional variability in glacier-climate interactions in Central Asia. Water resources in Central Asia strongly depend on glaciers, which in turn adjust their size in response to climate variations. We investigate glacier runoff in the period 1981–2019 in the upper Naryn basin, Kyrgyzstan. The basins contain more than 1,000 glaciers, which cover a total area of 776 km 2 . We model the mass balance and runoff contribution of all glaciers with a simplified energy balance melt model and distributed accumulation model driven by ERA5 LAND re-analysis data for the time period of 1981–2019. The results are evaluated against discharge records, satellite-derived snow cover, stake readings from individual glaciers, and geodetic mass balances. Modelled glacier volume decreased by approximately 6.7 km 3 or 14%, and the majority of the mass loss took place from 1996 until 2019. The decreasing trend is the result of increasingly negative summer mass balances whereas winter mass balances show no substantial trend. Analysis of the discharge data suggests an increasing runoff for the past two decades, which is, however only partly reflected in an increase of glacier melt. Moreover, the strongest increase in discharge is observed in winter, suggesting either a prolonged melting period and/or increased groundwater discharge. The average runoff from the glacierized areas in summer months (June to August) constitutes approximately 23% of the total contributions to the basin’s runoff. The results highlight the strong regional variability in glacier-climate interactions in Central Asia. |
| Author | Machguth, Horst Barandun, Martina Saks, Tomas Dehecq, Amaury Kenzhebaev, Ruslan Kalashnikova, Olga Pohl, Eric Hoelzle, Martin |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Tomas surname: Saks fullname: Saks, Tomas – sequence: 2 givenname: Eric surname: Pohl fullname: Pohl, Eric – sequence: 3 givenname: Horst surname: Machguth fullname: Machguth, Horst – sequence: 4 givenname: Amaury surname: Dehecq fullname: Dehecq, Amaury – sequence: 5 givenname: Martina surname: Barandun fullname: Barandun, Martina – sequence: 6 givenname: Ruslan surname: Kenzhebaev fullname: Kenzhebaev, Ruslan – sequence: 7 givenname: Olga surname: Kalashnikova fullname: Kalashnikova, Olga – sequence: 8 givenname: Martin surname: Hoelzle fullname: Hoelzle, Martin |
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| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ejrh_2023_101338 crossref_primary_10_3390_w16131902 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_chemosphere_2022_135788 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_ejrh_2024_101669 crossref_primary_10_5194_hess_27_453_2023 crossref_primary_10_1017_jog_2022_60 crossref_primary_10_1002_wat2_1705 crossref_primary_10_1175_JHM_D_22_0036_1 crossref_primary_10_3390_atmos13060954 |
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| SubjectTerms | Central Asia glacier mass balance glacier meltwater contribution Naryn River Tien Shan |
| Title | Glacier Runoff Variation Since 1981 in the Upper Naryn River Catchments, Central Tien Shan |
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