Combination of wind gust models in convective events

• Published in: Journal of wind engineering and industrial aerodynamics Vol. 199; p. 104118
• Main Authors: Gutiérrez, Alejandro, Porrini, Claudio, Fovell, Robert G.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01-04-2020
• Subjects: Forecast; Gust; Wind energy; Gust; Wind energy; Forecast
• ISSN: 0167-6105; 1872-8197
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jweia.2020.104118

Gusts are particularly relevant to wind engineering and it is of interest to develop a forecasting tool for wind energy management for systems such as Uruguay’s, which has a wind power participation of 38% (UTE, 2019). In the present work, we assess the performance of two gust parameterizations (Gutiérrez–Fovell and Nakamura et al.) utilizing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations for predicting gusts at 100 ​m above ground level in the presence of convection. Convective activity is predicted when the vertically accumulated rain water mixing ratio computed by the model exceeds a selected value and is verified in part via satellite imagery (GOES-13). Gust forecast skill is evaluated with wind tower observations. We find a combination of the two parameterizations yields the highest forecast skill.
•We present gust forecast parameterizations, utilizing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations for predicting gusts at 100 meters above ground level in the presence of convection.•Convective activity is predicted when the vertically accumulated rain water mixing ratio computed by the model exceeds a selected value and is verified in part via satellite imagery (GOES-13).•Gust forecast skill is evaluated with wind tower observations at at 100 meters above ground level.•We find a combination of the two parameterizations yields the highest forecast skill.•Gust forecast parameterizations.•Skill is evaluated with observations