Using modified cohort change and child-woman ratios in the Hamilton–Perry forecasting method
The Hamilton–Perry method, which uses cohort change ratios (CCR) and child-woman ratios (CWR), has gained acceptance as research has demonstrated its practical value and accuracy in forecasting population composition. Assessments of this method have been based on the usual assumption that CCRs and C...
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| Published in: | Journal of population research (Canberra, A.C.T.) Vol. 34; no. 3; pp. 209 - 231 |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer
01-09-2017
Springer Netherlands Springer Nature B.V |
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| Abstract | The Hamilton–Perry method, which uses cohort change ratios (CCR) and child-woman ratios (CWR), has gained acceptance as research has demonstrated its practical value and accuracy in forecasting population composition. Assessments of this method have been based on the usual assumption that CCRs and CWRs developed over the base period are held constant over the forecast horizon. We propose several approaches for modifying CCRs and CWRs over the forecast horizon. These alternatives are averaging and trending these ratios and a synthetic method that bases local CCRs and CWRs changes on state-level changes in CCRs and CWRs. We evaluate the errors for these alternatives against the errors holding the CCRs and CWRs constant for counties in Washington State and for census tracts in New Mexico. The evaluation suggests that averaging or trending CCRs and CWRs are not worthwhile strategies, but the synthetic method reduces errors compared to holding the ratios constant over the horizon. |
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| AbstractList | The Hamilton-Perry method, which uses cohort change ratios (CCR) and child-woman ratios (CWR), has gained acceptance as research has demonstrated its practical value and accuracy in forecasting population composition. Assessments of this method have been based on the usual assumption that CCRs and CWRs developed over the base period are held constant over the forecast horizon. We propose several approaches for modifying CCRs and CWRs over the forecast horizon. These alternatives are averaging and trending these ratios and a synthetic method that bases local CCRs and CWRs changes on state-level changes in CCRs and CWRs. We evaluate the errors for these alternatives against the errors holding the CCRs and CWRs constant for counties in Washington State and for census tracts in New Mexico. The evaluation suggests that averaging or trending CCRs and CWRs are not worthwhile strategies, but the synthetic method reduces errors compared to holding the ratios constant over the horizon. |
| Author | Swanson, David A. Tayman, Jeff |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Jeff surname: Tayman fullname: Tayman, Jeff – sequence: 2 givenname: David A. surname: Swanson fullname: Swanson, David A. |
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| Cites_doi | 10.2307/2579183 10.1007/s11113-009-9144-7 10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_12 10.1353/dem.2003.0041 10.1007/978-94-007-7551-0 10.1080/01621459.1995.10476489 10.1007/s12546-011-9054-5 10.1007/s11113-007-9030-0 10.1007/s11113-015-9380-y 10.1007/s12546-014-9137-1 10.1007/978-3-319-53745-0 |
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| Keywords | Synthetic forecasts Forecast evaluation Cohort change ratios Hamilton–Perry method |
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| References | CR2 Swanson (CR11) 2015; 5 Wilson (CR19) 2016; 35 Smith, Shahidullah (CR8) 1995; 90 Smith, Rayer (CR7) 2012 (CR5) 2002 Smith, Tayman (CR9) 2003; 40 Swanson, Tayman, Bryan (CR15) 2011; 28 CR16 Duncan, Cuzzort, Duncan (CR3) 1961 CR13 Baker, Alcantara, Ruan, Watkins, Vasan (CR1) 2014 Rayer (CR6) 2007; 26 Swanson, Tedrow, Baker, Schoen (CR17) 2016 Massey, Denton (CR4) 1988; 67 Williamson, Tanton, Edwards (CR18) 2013 Swanson, Schlottmann, Schmidt (CR12) 2010; 29 Smith, Tayman, Swanson (CR10) 2013 Swanson, Tayman, Swanson (CR14) 2016 DA Swanson (9190_CR11) 2015; 5 DA Swanson (9190_CR15) 2011; 28 S Rayer (9190_CR6) 2007; 26 P Williamson (9190_CR18) 2013 Office of Financial Management (9190_CR5) 2002 SK Smith (9190_CR7) 2012 DA Swanson (9190_CR14) 2016 DA Swanson (9190_CR17) 2016 OD Duncan (9190_CR3) 1961 SK Smith (9190_CR9) 2003; 40 T Wilson (9190_CR19) 2016; 35 DS Massey (9190_CR4) 1988; 67 DA Swanson (9190_CR12) 2010; 29 9190_CR16 J Baker (9190_CR1) 2014 9190_CR2 SK Smith (9190_CR10) 2013 9190_CR13 SK Smith (9190_CR8) 1995; 90 |
| References_xml | – volume: 67 start-page: 281 year: 1988 end-page: 315 ident: CR4 article-title: The dimensions of residential segregation publication-title: Social Forces doi: 10.2307/2579183 contributor: fullname: Denton – year: 2002 ident: CR5 publication-title: Washington State county population projections for growth management by age and sex 2000–2025 – volume: 5 start-page: 1 issue: 1 year: 2015 end-page: 14 ident: CR11 article-title: On the relationship among values of the same summary measure of error when it is used across multiple characteristics at the same point in time: An examination of MALPE and MAPE publication-title: Review of Economics and Finance contributor: fullname: Swanson – volume: 29 start-page: 47 year: 2010 end-page: 63 ident: CR12 article-title: Forecasting the population of census tracts by age and sex: An example of the Hamilton–Perry method in action publication-title: Population Research and Policy Review doi: 10.1007/s11113-009-9144-7 contributor: fullname: Schmidt – year: 2014 ident: CR1 article-title: Spatial weighting improves accuracy in small area demographic forecasts of urban census tract populations publication-title: Journal of Population Research contributor: fullname: Vasan – ident: CR2 – ident: CR16 – start-page: 491 year: 2016 end-page: 513 ident: CR14 article-title: A long term test of the accuracy of the Hamilton–Perry method publication-title: New frontiers of applied demography contributor: fullname: Swanson – start-page: 227 year: 2013 end-page: 258 ident: CR18 article-title: An evaluation of two synthetic small area microdata simulation methodologies: Synthetic reconstruction and combinatorial optimisation publication-title: Spatial microsimulation: A reference guide for users contributor: fullname: Edwards – ident: CR13 – start-page: 227 year: 2016 end-page: 258 ident: CR17 article-title: Exploring stable population concepts from the perspective of cohort change ratios: Estimating the time to stability and intrinsic r from initial information and components of change publication-title: Dynamic demographic analysis doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_12 contributor: fullname: Schoen – volume: 40 start-page: 741 issue: 4 year: 2003 end-page: 757 ident: CR9 article-title: An evaluation of population projections by age publication-title: Demography doi: 10.1353/dem.2003.0041 contributor: fullname: Tayman – year: 1961 ident: CR3 publication-title: Statistical geography: Problems in analyzing area data contributor: fullname: Duncan – year: 2013 ident: CR10 publication-title: A practitioner’s guide to state and local population projections doi: 10.1007/978-94-007-7551-0 contributor: fullname: Swanson – volume: 90 start-page: 64 year: 1995 end-page: 71 ident: CR8 article-title: An evaluation of population projections errors by census tract publication-title: Journal of the American Statistical Association doi: 10.1080/01621459.1995.10476489 contributor: fullname: Shahidullah – volume: 28 start-page: 225 year: 2011 end-page: 243 ident: CR15 article-title: MAPE-R: A rescaled measure of accuracy for cross-sectional, sub-national forecasts publication-title: Journal of Population Research doi: 10.1007/s12546-011-9054-5 contributor: fullname: Bryan – volume: 26 start-page: 163 year: 2007 end-page: 184 ident: CR6 article-title: Population forecast accuracy: does the choice of summary measure of error matter? publication-title: Population Research and Policy Review doi: 10.1007/s11113-007-9030-0 contributor: fullname: Rayer – year: 2012 ident: CR7 publication-title: Projections of Florida population by county, 2011–2040. 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| Snippet | The Hamilton–Perry method, which uses cohort change ratios (CCR) and child-woman ratios (CWR), has gained acceptance as research has demonstrated its practical... The Hamilton-Perry method, which uses cohort change ratios (CCR) and child-woman ratios (CWR), has gained acceptance as research has demonstrated its practical... |
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| Title | Using modified cohort change and child-woman ratios in the Hamilton–Perry forecasting method |
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