Impacts of climatic changes on the worldwide potential geographical dispersal range of the leopard moth, Zeuzera pyrina (L.) (Lepidoptera: Cossidae)
Climate change is a crucial element propelling shifts in pest dispersals. Accurate evaluation of pest potential distributions for determining their establishment risks can lead to development of more efficacious pest management strategies. The leopard moth, Zeuzera pyrina (L.) (Lepidoptera: Cossidae...
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| Published in: | Global ecology and conservation Vol. 34; p. e02050 |
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| Language: | English |
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01-04-2022
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| Abstract | Climate change is a crucial element propelling shifts in pest dispersals. Accurate evaluation of pest potential distributions for determining their establishment risks can lead to development of more efficacious pest management strategies. The leopard moth, Zeuzera pyrina (L.) (Lepidoptera: Cossidae), is a devastating pest with increasing significance particularly due to increasing frequency and severity of drought episodes in the context of global warming. In light of invasiveness and economic importance of this pest, it would be imperative to study the impact of climate changes on its worldwide distribution. In the current study, Maximum Entropy models were utilized to predict appropriate habitats for Z. pyrina under current and future climate scenarios averaged from four global climate models under two representative emission pathways in 2050 and 2070. Totally, 13,703 presence occurrence records were compiled. The results indicated that at the present time, out of the total world’s land, 16.91% is climatically appropriate for the species including nearly 74% of Europe, greater than 19% of America, and more than 37% of Asia and Oceania. Under future climate conditions, the risk area of Z. pyrina in the northern and southern hemispheres were projected to expand northward and downward, respectively. The impacts of the global climatic changes on potential geographical distribution of Z. pyrina should be considered prior implementing any management program in the future. Moreover, our findings can be enlightening for biosecurity organizations in decision-making and serve as an early alerting to safeguard unaffected regions against the leopard moth invasion. |
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| AbstractList | Climate change is a crucial element propelling shifts in pest dispersals. Accurate evaluation of pest potential distributions for determining their establishment risks can lead to development of more efficacious pest management strategies. The leopard moth, Zeuzera pyrina (L.) (Lepidoptera: Cossidae), is a devastating pest with increasing significance particularly due to increasing frequency and severity of drought episodes in the context of global warming. In light of invasiveness and economic importance of this pest, it would be imperative to study the impact of climate changes on its worldwide distribution. In the current study, Maximum Entropy models were utilized to predict appropriate habitats for Z. pyrina under current and future climate scenarios averaged from four global climate models under two representative emission pathways in 2050 and 2070. Totally, 13,703 presence occurrence records were compiled. The results indicated that at the present time, out of the total world’s land, 16.91% is climatically appropriate for the species including nearly 74% of Europe, greater than 19% of America, and more than 37% of Asia and Oceania. Under future climate conditions, the risk area of Z. pyrina in the northern and southern hemispheres were projected to expand northward and downward, respectively. The impacts of the global climatic changes on potential geographical distribution of Z. pyrina should be considered prior implementing any management program in the future. Moreover, our findings can be enlightening for biosecurity organizations in decision-making and serve as an early alerting to safeguard unaffected regions against the leopard moth invasion. |
| ArticleNumber | e02050 |
| Author | Farashi, Azita Fekrat, Lida |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Lida surname: Fekrat fullname: Fekrat, Lida email: fekrat@um.ac.ir organization: Department of Plant Protection, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran – sequence: 2 givenname: Azita surname: Farashi fullname: Farashi, Azita email: farashi@um.ac.ir organization: Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran |
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| Copyright | 2022 The Authors |
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| Keywords | Species distribution models Potential geographical distribution Climatic changes MaxEnt Range size Zeuzera pyrina |
| Language | English |
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