Design of a System Dynamics Model to Analyze the Styrene Demand in the Brazilian Market
The growth of the petrochemical industry is based on end-user applications such as the automotive and construction sectors, which are the main drivers of the styrene market. However, the use of substitutes for petrochemicals is a reality and creates a competition in the applications of petroleum pro...
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| Published in: | Systemic practice and action research Vol. 31; no. 1; pp. 87 - 104 |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English |
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01-02-2018
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| Abstract | The growth of the petrochemical industry is based on end-user applications such as the automotive and construction sectors, which are the main drivers of the styrene market. However, the use of substitutes for petrochemicals is a reality and creates a competition in the applications of petroleum products. In this sense, this research aimed to design a system dynamics model to evaluate different scenarios, observing the behavior of the styrene demand over time. In the first phase of the project, a greater understanding of the issue was created and a closed loops diagram was elaborated. It was used during the second phase to design an explanatory regression validation model for the styrene demand. In phase three, a visualizing model and scenarios were designed. The scenarios themselves and the results of each scenario were evaluated. The designed and simulated scenarios aimed to evaluate the impact that the use of substitute materials and the variations in gross domestic product cause to the styrene market. The use of system dynamics together with scenario planning was efficient as different strategies for the market could be evaluated based on the simulated scenarios. A critical analysis of the model’s contribution to the decision-making within organizations concludes the study. |
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| AbstractList | The growth of the petrochemical industry is based on end-user applications such as the automotive and construction sectors, which are the main drivers of the styrene market. However, the use of substitutes for petrochemicals is a reality and creates a competition in the applications of petroleum products. In this sense, this research aimed to design a system dynamics model to evaluate different scenarios, observing the behavior of the styrene demand over time. In the first phase of the project, a greater understanding of the issue was created and a closed loops diagram was elaborated. It was used during the second phase to design an explanatory regression validation model for the styrene demand. In phase three, a visualizing model and scenarios were designed. The scenarios themselves and the results of each scenario were evaluated. The designed and simulated scenarios aimed to evaluate the impact that the use of substitute materials and the variations in gross domestic product cause to the styrene market. The use of system dynamics together with scenario planning was efficient as different strategies for the market could be evaluated based on the simulated scenarios. A critical analysis of the model’s contribution to the decision-making within organizations concludes the study. |
| Author | Souza, Marcos Leandro Hoffmann Morandi, Maria Isabel Wolf Motta Rodrigues, Luis Henrique |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Marcos Leandro Hoffmann surname: Souza fullname: Souza, Marcos Leandro Hoffmann email: marcosl.hoffmann@yahoo.com.br organization: Research Group on Modeling for Learning – GMAP|UNISINOS, Production and System Engineering Post-Graduation Program – PPGEPS/UNISINOS, Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos – UNISINOS – sequence: 2 givenname: Luis Henrique surname: Rodrigues fullname: Rodrigues, Luis Henrique organization: Research Group on Modeling for Learning – GMAP|UNISINOS, Production and System Engineering Post-Graduation Program – PPGEPS/UNISINOS, Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos – UNISINOS – sequence: 3 givenname: Maria Isabel Wolf Motta surname: Morandi fullname: Morandi, Maria Isabel Wolf Motta organization: Research Group on Modeling for Learning – GMAP|UNISINOS, Production and System Engineering Post-Graduation Program – PPGEPS/UNISINOS, Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos – UNISINOS |
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| Keywords | Decision-making System dynamics Styrene demand Scenario planning |
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| Title | Design of a System Dynamics Model to Analyze the Styrene Demand in the Brazilian Market |
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