Does urban development influence crime? Evidence from Philadelphia’s new zoning regulations

• Published in: Journal of urban economics Vol. 142; p. 103667
• Main Authors: Mitre-Becerril, David, MacDonald, John M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Inc 01-07-2024
• Subjects: Crime; Difference-in-discontinuities; Land use changes; Machine learning; Zoning policy; Land use changes; Zoning policy; Difference-in-discontinuities; Crime; Machine learning
• ISSN: 0094-1190; 1095-9068
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2024.103667

This paper estimates the effect of enacting a new zoning code in Philadelphia on urban development and crime. The new zoning code was intended to ease regulatory burdens for property development and land use changes, but the law allowed city council members to keep prerogative over urban development in their districts. The council district prerogative created arbitrary geographic discontinuities in the ability of the zoning code to promote urban development. Using a difference-in-discontinuities design, we find that the new zoning regulation caused a 35 percent reduction in land use zoning changes and building permits in council districts less friendly to urban development relative to neighboring districts. The decline in urban development had no short-term effect on crime. Construction projects and land-use changes appear to occur in the most densely populated areas, suggesting that council districts less inclined to urban development prevent residential construction in areas that would otherwise be a source for new residential housing development.