The influence of countries' socioeconomic characteristics on the adoption of electric vehicle

• Published in: Energy for sustainable development Vol. 71; pp. 251 - 262
• Main Authors: Ruoso, Ana Cristina, Ribeiro, José Luis Duarte
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Inc 01-12-2022
• Subjects: Asymmetrical S-curves; Electric vehicles; Innovation diffusion; Nonlinear regression; Electric vehicles; Innovation diffusion; Nonlinear regression; Asymmetrical S-curves
• ISSN: 0973-0826
• DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2022.10.003

The transportation sector generates the second-largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but is considered the most challenging sector to decarbonise. Vehicle electrification is a promising path for GHG mitigation in this scenario. Thus, given the expected growth of this market in the coming years, this study presents a predictive model of the adoption growth of electric vehicles considering countries' characteristics. To this end, socioeconomic data from 28 diversified countries were gathered, a correlation study was conducted, and a predictive model based on nonlinear regression and asymmetrical S-curves was developed. The model developed is composed of three independent variables: Per capita GDP, percentage of energy consumption from renewable sources, and gasoline price per litre. China, Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, and France show a higher than expected growth in adopting electric vehicles. On the other hand, the adoption growth in New Zealand, Italy, Switzerland, and Greece is slower than expected. The model developed presents a good fit for the data. In some cases, the disparity between predicted and observed growth is mainly related to local public policies. The proposed model can be used as a reference to evaluate the evolution of electric vehicle adoption in different countries. It can help in decision-making regarding public policies and infrastructure to support electromobility.
•EV adoption can be predicted by considering GDP per capita, renewable energy consumption, and gasoline price.•Renewable energy consumption is the variable most correlated with the EV adoption observed in different countries.•European countries have the highest EV adoption.•China, Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, and France show EV adoption higher than predicted.•EV adoption in New Zealand, Italy, Switzerland, and Greece is occurring slower than expected.