The Impact of “Shall-Issue” Concealed Handgun Laws on Violent Crime Rates Evidence From Panel Data for Large Urban Cities

• Published in: Homicide studies Vol. 9; no. 4; pp. 292 - 323
• Main Authors: Kovandzic, Tomislav V., Marvell, Thomas B., Vieraitis, Lynne M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Thousand Oaks, CA SAGE Publications 01-11-2005; SAGE PUBLICATIONS, INC
• Subjects: Cities; Firearm laws & regulations; Urban areas; Violent crime; USA; violent crime; gun control; concealed-carry laws; right-to-carry laws; homicide; handguns
• ISSN: 1088-7679; 1552-6720
• DOI: 10.1177/1088767905279972

What happens when states ease access to permits to carry concealed handguns in public places? Supporters maintain the laws can reduce violent crime rates by raising the expected costs of crime, because of criminals anticipating greater risks of injury and lower rates of success completing their crimes. Opponents argue that the laws are likely to increase violent crime, especially homicide, as heated disputes involving permit holders are more likely to turn deadly because of the greater lethality of firearms. This study uses panel data for all U.S. cities with a 1990 population of at least 100,000 for 1980 to 2000 to examine the impact of “shall-issue” concealed handgun laws on violent crime rates. The authors measure the effects of the laws using a time-trend variable for the number of years after the law has been in effect, as opposed to the dummy variable approach used in prior research. They also address many of the methodological problems encountered in previous studies. The results provide no evidence that the laws reduce or increase rates of violent crime.