Deviating from full rationality but not from theoretical consistency: The behavior of inflation expectations in Brazil
•We reject the hypothesis of full rationality of inflation expectations in Brazil.•Inflation forecast errors of survey respondents are biased and can be predicted.•Deviations from full rationality cannot be explained by information rigidity.•Expectations about related variables respond to each other...
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Published in: | The Quarterly review of economics and finance Vol. 84; pp. 492 - 501 |
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Abstract | •We reject the hypothesis of full rationality of inflation expectations in Brazil.•Inflation forecast errors of survey respondents are biased and can be predicted.•Deviations from full rationality cannot be explained by information rigidity.•Expectations about related variables respond to each other as predicted by theory.
The aim of this paper is to investigate whether inflation expectations in Brazil have characteristics and statistical properties that can be correlated (possibly in a causal way) with observed variables of interest and expectations about them. Our analysis covers the period from December 2001 to August 2018. We test the hypothesis of rational expectations in the formation of inflation expectations by the respondents of the official survey conducted by the Central Bank of Brazil, examining the behavior of their forecast errors. As these errors are biased and can be predicted, we reject the hypothesis of full rationality. We also test models of noisy and sticky information, and we cannot conclude that the deviations from full rationality can be explained by information rigidity. Additionally, with a vector error correction model, we find evidence that the expectations about the related macroeconomic variables respond to each other as predicted by a theoretically-grounded macroeconomic model. Therefore, inflation expectations in Brazil are to an important extent consistent with more general expectations about the future performance of the economy. |
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AbstractList | •We reject the hypothesis of full rationality of inflation expectations in Brazil.•Inflation forecast errors of survey respondents are biased and can be predicted.•Deviations from full rationality cannot be explained by information rigidity.•Expectations about related variables respond to each other as predicted by theory.
The aim of this paper is to investigate whether inflation expectations in Brazil have characteristics and statistical properties that can be correlated (possibly in a causal way) with observed variables of interest and expectations about them. Our analysis covers the period from December 2001 to August 2018. We test the hypothesis of rational expectations in the formation of inflation expectations by the respondents of the official survey conducted by the Central Bank of Brazil, examining the behavior of their forecast errors. As these errors are biased and can be predicted, we reject the hypothesis of full rationality. We also test models of noisy and sticky information, and we cannot conclude that the deviations from full rationality can be explained by information rigidity. Additionally, with a vector error correction model, we find evidence that the expectations about the related macroeconomic variables respond to each other as predicted by a theoretically-grounded macroeconomic model. Therefore, inflation expectations in Brazil are to an important extent consistent with more general expectations about the future performance of the economy. |
Author | Lima, Gilberto Tadeu Meurer, Roberto Cambara, Leilane de Freitas Rocha |
Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Leilane de Freitas Rocha orcidid: 0000-0002-3809-2890 surname: Cambara fullname: Cambara, Leilane de Freitas Rocha email: l.defreitasrochacambara@surrey.ac.uk organization: Department of Economics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, SC, Brazil – sequence: 2 givenname: Roberto surname: Meurer fullname: Meurer, Roberto email: roberto.meurer@ufsc.br organization: Department of Economics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, SC, Brazil – sequence: 3 givenname: Gilberto Tadeu surname: Lima fullname: Lima, Gilberto Tadeu email: giltadeu@usp.br organization: Department of Economics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil |
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Cites_doi | 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.07.003 10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.04.003 10.1257/aer.20110306 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2003.09.004 10.12660/bre.v35n22015.57573 10.1016/S0165-1765(98)00244-4 10.1080/02692170701474611 10.1590/S0034-71402012000300002 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2016.11.001 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2003.09.008 10.1162/003355302320935034 10.2307/1935962 10.1080/01603477.2016.1246949 |
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Keywords | D84 forecast errors in surveys E31 deviations from full rationality E10 Inflation expectations in Brazil |
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Title | Deviating from full rationality but not from theoretical consistency: The behavior of inflation expectations in Brazil |
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