COVID-19 forecast for 13 Caribbean countries using ARIMA modeling for confirmed, death, and recovered cases [version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations]

• Published in: F1000 research Vol. 10; p. 1068
• Main Authors: Talukdar, Debjyoti, Tripathi, Vrijesh
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 2021
• Subjects: SARS nCoV-2; COVID-19; ARIMA Forecast; COVID-19 in the Caribbean; Confirmed Cases; SARS nCoV-2 Death; Recovered COVID-19 cases
• ISSN: 2046-1402; 2046-1402
• DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.73746.1

Background: The rapid spread of the Covid-19 virus in the Caribbean region has led to increased surveillance with an increasing trend of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in 13 Caribbean countries.
Our study aims to analyze the impact of Covid-19 (SARS nCoV-2) in 13 Caribbean countries in terms of the number of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered cases.
Methods:
The study uses the ARIMA model based on the time series pattern according to data retrieved from John Hopkins University. The data were analyzed using Stata 14 SE software for the period January 22, 2020, and August 16, 2021, and forecasted till December 31, 2021. All chosen models were compared with other models in terms of various factors like AIC/BIC, log-likelihood, p-value significance, coefficient < 1, and 5% significance. The ACF and PACF graphs were plotted to reduce bias and select the best-fitting model.
Results: The results show the predicted trend in terms of confirmed, death, and recovered cases of COVID-19 for 13 Caribbean countries. The projected ARIMA model forecast for the period December 16, 2021, to December 31, 2021, shows 2470272 (95% CI 2438965 - 2501579) confirmed cases, 27220 (95% CI 26886 - 27555) deaths, and 818105 (95% CI 818085 - 818125) recovered cases related to Covid-19. The final ARIMA model chosen for confirmed COVID-19 cases, several deaths, and recovered cases are ARIMA (9,2,4), ARIMA (1,2,1), and ARIMA (1,2,1), respectively.
Conclusions
As per the results of the forecasted COVID-19 models, there is a steady rise in confirmed, death, and recovered cases during the period June 1, 2020, until November 30, 2020, and April 1, 2021, until June 15, 2021. It shows an increasing trend for confirmed and recovered COVID-19 cases and a slowing of the number of deaths.