Spatial modelling of deforestation-related factors in the Brazilian semi-arid biome

• Published in: International journal of environmental studies Vol. 80; no. 4; pp. 1021 - 1040
• Main Authors: da Silva, Carlos Fabricio Assunção, Dos Santos, Alex Mota, de Melo, Silas Nogueira, Rudke, Anderson Paulo, de Almeida Junior, Pedro Monteiro
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Routledge 04-07-2023; Gordon and Breach Science Publishers
• Subjects: Agribusiness; Agricultural credit; Arid environments; Aridity; Caatinga; Deforestation; Environmental science; Environmental studies; GWR model; Semi arid environments; Semiarid environments; spatial variability; Subsistence agriculture; Sustainability
• ISSN: 0020-7233; 1029-0400
• DOI: 10.1080/00207233.2022.2099109

The Caatinga biome is the largest and wettest semi-arid environment globally, occupying 10% of the Brazilian territory. Half of the original vegetation from the Caatinga has already been deforested. This research aims to identify the factors associated with Caatinga deforestation (2010-2016). Therefore, the researchers used Geographically Weighted Regression to analyse the drivers of deforestation at the municipal level. Our results showed that five factors are crucial for understanding the spatial variability of deforestation in the Caatinga biome: agricultural credit, cattle, goats, distance from roads, and mining activities. The results were interpreted carefully since the semi-arid Biome is marked by regional asymmetries, mixing subsistence agriculture with agribusiness (MATOPIBA and Vale do Rio São Francisco). The outcome maps allow us to discuss the implication of spatial arrangements and intervention policies towards sustainability.