Evaluation of long-term meteorological drought in the Aras and Coruh Basins with Crossing Empirical Trend Analysis

• Published in: Physics and chemistry of the earth. Parts A/B/C Vol. 135; p. 103611
• Main Authors: Simsek, Oguz, Iyad Ceyhunlu, Ahmet, Ceribasi, Gokmen, Demir Keskiner, Ali
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01-10-2024
• Subjects: Aras Basin; CETA; Coruh Basin; Crossing Empirical Trend Analysis; Meteorological drought; CETA; Crossing Empirical Trend Analysis; Coruh Basin; Aras Basin; Meteorological drought
• ISSN: 1474-7065
• DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2024.103611

Drought is one of the most devastating disasters. Although the devastating effects of drought appear after many years, it is possible to evaluate drought based on meteorological parameters to control these negativities. In recent years, graphical trend analysis methods have been used to evaluate drought using meteorological parameters. The Crossing Empirical Trend Analysis method is the most recent trend analysis method and one of these graphical methods. Using monthly total precipitation data measured between 1969 and 2020 at 12 different meteorological observation stations within the borders of the Aras and Coruh basins, located northeast of Turkey, the basin's meteorological drought analysis was analyzed through the standardized precipitation index. In the study, the trend of meteorological drought in the basin was determined using the CETA method. As a result of the study, it was determined that there was an increasing trend in the majority of drought values in the Slope Upper and CETA Pivot analysis and a decreasing trend in the Slope Lower values. According to the Sen Slope analysis, there was no significant change in trends (34% increased, 35% decreased, and 31% no trend). Ardahan station is the most sensitive station regarding meteorological drought among the stations examined. It was concluded that the months with the highest increase trend in the Aras and Coruh basins are May, June and November.
•SPI and CETA were applied to monthly total precipitation between 1969 and 2020.•The application of these methods was for Aras and Coruh Basins in Turkey.•CETA method was used for the first time in these basins.•An increasing trend in meteorological drought was determined these basins.•These basins, located in eastern Turkey, is at risk of drought in the future.