Investigating the Performance of the Informer Model for Streamflow Forecasting

• Published in: Water (Basel) Vol. 16; no. 20; p. 2882
• Main Authors: Tepetidis, Nikos, Koutsoyiannis, Demetris, Iliopoulou, Theano, Dimitriadis, Panayiotis
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01-10-2024
• Subjects: Agriculture; Algorithms; Artificial intelligence; attention mechanism; Case studies; Comparative analysis; Computational linguistics; Deep learning; Drought; Empowerment; flood; Floods; Forecasting; Hydrology; Investigations; Language processing; long sequence time series forecasting (LSTF); Machine learning; Natural language interfaces; Neural networks; Regression analysis; river streamflow forecasting; Seasonal variations; Statistical methods; Storm damage; Stream flow; Streamflow; Support vector machines; Time series; transformers; Trends; United Kingdom
• ISSN: 2073-4441; 2073-4441
• DOI: 10.3390/w16202882

Recent studies have shown the potential of transformer-based neural networks in increasing prediction capacity. However, classical transformers present several problems such as computational time complexity and high memory requirements, which make Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting (LSTF) challenging. The contribution to the prediction of time series of flood events using deep learning techniques is examined, with a particular focus on evaluating the performance of the Informer model (a particular implementation of transformer architecture), which attempts to address the previous issues. The predictive capabilities of the Informer model are explored and compared to statistical methods, stochastic models and traditional deep neural networks. The accuracy, efficiency as well as the limits of the approaches are demonstrated via numerical benchmarks relating to real river streamflow applications. Using daily flow data from the River Test in England as the main case study, we conduct a rigorous evaluation of the Informer efficacy in capturing the complex temporal dependencies inherent in streamflow time series. The analysis is extended to encompass diverse time series datasets from various locations (>100) in the United Kingdom, providing insights into the generalizability of the Informer. The results highlight the superiority of the Informer model over established forecasting methods, especially regarding the LSTF problem. For a forecast horizon of 168 days, the Informer model achieves an NSE of 0.8 and maintains a MAPE below 10%, while the second-best model (LSTM) only achieves −0.63 and 25%, respectively. Furthermore, it is observed that the dependence structure of time series, as expressed by the climacogram, affects the performance of the Informer network.