Evidence for and projection of multi-breadbasket failure caused by climate change

• Published in: Current opinion in environmental sustainability Vol. 58; p. 101217
• Main Authors: Hasegawa, Toshihiro, Wakatsuki, Hitomi, Nelson, Gerald C
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01-10-2022
• ISSN: 1877-3435; 1877-3443
• DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101217

Simultaneous crop failures in multiple major producing regions (breadbaskets) threaten both local and global food security. Evidence of their frequency and impact has recently become more available. We conducted a systematic literature search and identified 30 articles published between 2019 and 2022. Historically, synchronized crop-production losses have led to a global production deficit of as much as 20% and have often been associated with large-scale sea-surface temperature oscillations. Increasingly strong evidence suggests that the frequency of these impacts will increase with global warming. Simultaneous breadbasket failures increase local and global food prices and undermine food security, particularly in import-dependent low-income regions. Closely monitoring exposure to hazards, vulnerability, and impacts on food availability, access, and utilization in exporters and importers at regional and global levels will help identify vulnerable regions and processes. Seasonal forecasting of yield anomalies based on climate indices can provide a means of early warning.
Schematic presentation for the observed and projected risks of simultaneous crop failures from the systematic review. [Display omitted]
•Historically, crop failures occurred, associated with mode of climate variability.•Exposure to climate hazards causing simultaneous crop failures has risen.•The risk is projected to increase with the global-warming level.•Synchrony could amplify the impacts in import-dependent countries.•Monitoring exposure and impacts from hazards will help identify vulnerable regions.