Assessing the Social and Economic Indicators of Seismic Risk Using the Town of Angarsk as an Example

• Published in: Izvestiya. Atmospheric and oceanic physics Vol. 58; no. 8; pp. 881 - 907
• Main Authors: Frolova, N. I., Malaeva, N. S., Ruzhich, V. V., Berzhinskaya, L. P., Levina, E. A., Suchshev, S. P., Larionov, V. I., Ugarov, A. N.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Moscow Pleiades Publishing 01-12-2022; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Climatology; Computer simulation; Decision making; Disaster management; Disaster risk; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earthquake damage; Earthquake resistance; Earthquakes; Economic indicators; Economics; Emergency preparedness; Geographical information systems; Geological hazards; Geophysics/Geodesy; Indicators; Inspection; Methods; Rift zones; Risk; Risk assessment; Risk management; Risk reduction; Seismic activity; Seismic hazard; Seismicity; Uplift; Vulnerability; seismic hazard; reliability of risk parameter estimates; vulnerability of existing structures of buildings; GIS Extremum; seismic risk indicators
• ISSN: 0001-4338; 1555-628X
• DOI: 10.1134/S0001433822080011

This article solves the task of selecting and describing methods for assessing the social and economic indicators of seismic risk using the example of the town of Angarsk in Irkutsk oblast, which is located dangerously close (100–120 km) to seismically dangerous faults in the Eastern Sayan uplift and the Baikal Rift Zone characterized by magnitudes
M
= 6.5–8.0. The relevance of the study is determined by the demand for clarifying the seismicity of an actively developing region and the declaration of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, which calls for improving risk assessment methods and implementing measures to mitigate it. The goal is to obtain reliable estimates of risk indicators that are necessary and sufficient for making the decision to mitigate. The scientific novelty is due to the fact that, for the first time, as part of one work for a single town, the results of all stages of the study are presented, including updating the assessment of seismic hazard, the vulnerability of risk elements, and the calculation of various indicators of possible damage associated with the risk. In addition, a joint analysis of all values has been performed for the first time. To assess the risk indicators, methods of computer simulation using the GIS Extremum, developed with the participation of the authors of this paper, were applied. In addition to describing methodological techniques, the article provides a rationale for the parameters of the possible and most dangerous seismic events. For the town of Angarsk, these are 8 and 9 grades of the MMSK-86 scale. An assessment of the social and economic indicators of seismic risk has been performed, the values of which are the highest in the microdistricts of Baikalsk, Staro-Baikalsk, Kitoy, and Novy-4, which implies the need for special measures, including the inspection and strengthening of the seismic resistance of buildings.