Patient-oriented risk score for predicting death 1 year after myocardial infarction: the SweDen risk score

• Published in: Open heart Vol. 9; no. 2; p. e002143
• Main Authors: Rylance, Rebecca Tremain, Wagner, Philippe, Olesen, Kevin K W, Carlson, Jonas, Alfredsson, Joakim, Jernberg, Tomas, Leosdottir, Margret, Johansson, Pelle, Vasko, Peter, Maeng, Michael, Mohammed, Moman Aladdin, Erlinge, David
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England British Cardiovascular Society 2022; BMJ Publishing Group LTD; BMJ Publishing Group
• Series: Original research
• Subjects: acute coronary syndrome; Acute coronary syndromes; Age groups; Angina pectoris; biostatistics; Calibration; Cardiac and Cardiovascular Systems; Cardiovascular disease; Clinical Medicine; Coronary Artery Disease; Datasets; Diabetes; Heart attacks; Heart Failure; Hospitals; Humans; Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors - therapeutic use; Kardiologi; Klinisk medicin; Medical and Health Sciences; Medicin och hälsovetenskap; Mortality; myocardial infarction; Myocardial Infarction - diagnosis; Myocardial Infarction - therapy; Patients; Risk Factors; Sweden - epidemiology; Sweden; Denmark; biostatistics; acute coronary syndrome; myocardial infarction
• ISSN: 2053-3624; 2398-595X; 2053-3624
• DOI: 10.1136/openhrt-2022-002143

ObjectivesOur aim was to derive, based on the SWEDEHEART registry, and validate, using the Western Denmark Heart registry, a patient-oriented risk score, the SweDen score, which could calculate the risk of 1-year mortality following a myocardial infarction (MI).MethodsThe factors included in the SweDen score were age, sex, smoking, diabetes, heart failure and statin use. These were chosen a priori by the SWEDEHEART steering group based on the premise that the factors were information known by the patients themselves. The score was evaluated using various statistical methods such as time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curves of the linear predictor, area under the curve metrics, Kaplan-Meier survivor curves and the calibration slope.ResultsThe area under the curve values were 0.81 in the derivation data and 0.76 in the validation data. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed similar patient profiles across datasets. The calibration slope was 1.03 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.08) in the validation data using the linear predictor from the derivation data.ConclusionsThe SweDen risk score is a novel tool created for patient use. The risk score calculator will be available online and presents mortality risk on a colour scale to simplify interpretation and to avoid exact life span expectancies. It provides a validated patient-oriented risk score predicting the risk of death within 1 year after suffering an MI, which visualises the benefit of statin use and smoking cessation in a simple way.