Forecasting Industrial Aging Processes with Machine Learning Methods

• Main Authors: Bogojeski, Mihail, Sauer, Simeon, Horn, Franziska, Müller, Klaus-Robert
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 05-02-2020
• Subjects: Computer Science - Learning; Statistics - Machine Learning
• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2002.01768

Accurately predicting industrial aging processes makes it possible to
schedule maintenance events further in advance, ensuring a cost-efficient and
reliable operation of the plant. So far, these degradation processes were
usually described by mechanistic or simple empirical prediction models. In this
paper, we evaluate a wider range of data-driven models, comparing some
traditional stateless models (linear and kernel ridge regression, feed-forward
neural networks) to more complex recurrent neural networks (echo state networks
and LSTMs). We first examine how much historical data is needed to train each
of the models on a synthetic dataset with known dynamics. Next, the models are
tested on real-world data from a large scale chemical plant. Our results show
that recurrent models produce near perfect predictions when trained on larger
datasets, and maintain a good performance even when trained on smaller datasets
with domain shifts, while the simpler models only performed comparably on the
smaller datasets.