Phenological tracking enables positive species responses to climate change

• Published in: Ecology (Durham) Vol. 93; no. 8; pp. 1765 - 1771
• Main Authors: Cleland, Elsa E, Allen, Jenica M, Crimmins, Theresa M, Dunne, Jennifer A, Pau, Stephanie, Travers, Steven E, Zavaleta, Erika S, Wolkovich, Elizabeth M
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington, DC Ecological Society of America 01-08-2012
• Subjects: Animal and plant ecology; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Biological and medical sciences; Biomass; California; climate; Climate Change; Climate models; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; conservation; Demography; Earth, ocean, space; Ecological genetics; Ecological invasion; Ecology; Ecosystem; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; flowering; flowers; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects; Global warming; growing season; meta-analysis; Meteorology; Models, Biological; monitoring; mutualism; Phenology; Plant Development; Plant growth; Plants; Plants - classification; risk; Risk assessment; Species; Species Specificity; Synecology; synthesis; Temperature; temperature sensitivity; tracking climate; warming experiment; California; Warming; synthesis; tracking climate; Climate; Temperature; Tracking; Conservation; meta-analysis; warming experiment; Metaanalysis; Dynamical climatology; Climate change; Phenology; temperature sensitivity
• ISSN: 0012-9658; 1939-9170
• DOI: 10.1890/11-1912.1

Earlier spring phenology observed in many plant species in recent decades provides compelling evidence that species are already responding to the rising global temperatures associated with anthropogenic climate change. There is great variability among species, however, in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. Species that do not phenologically "track" climate change may be at a disadvantage if their growth becomes limited by missed interactions with mutualists, or a shorter growing season relative to earlier-active competitors. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that phenological sensitivity could be used to predict species performance in a warming climate, by synthesizing results across terrestrial warming experiments. We assembled data for 57 species across 24 studies where flowering or vegetative phenology was matched with a measure of species performance. Performance metrics included biomass, percent cover, number of flowers, or individual growth. We found that species that advanced their phenology with warming also increased their performance, whereas those that did not advance tended to decline in performance with warming. This indicates that species that cannot phenologically "track" climate may be at increased risk with future climate change, and it suggests that phenological monitoring may provide an important tool for setting future conservation priorities.