Assessing Recovery from Acidification of European Surface Waters in the Year 2010: Evaluation of Projections Made with the MAGIC Model in 1995

• Published in: Environmental science & technology Vol. 48; no. 22; pp. 13280 - 13288
• Main Authors: Helliwell, Rachel C, Wright, Richard F, Jackson-Blake, Leah A, Ferrier, Robert C, Aherne, Julian, Cosby, Bernard J, Evans, Christopher D, Forsius, Martin, Hruska, Jakub, Jenkins, Alan, Kram, Pavel, Kopáček, Jiri, Majer, Vladimir, Moldan, Filip, Posch, Maximilian, Potts, Jacqueline M, Rogora, Michela, Schöpp, Wolfgang
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington, DC American Chemical Society 18-11-2014
• Subjects: Acidification; Acids - chemistry; Air pollution; Applied sciences; Computer Simulation; Continental surface waters; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Environmental Monitoring - methods; Europe; Exact sciences and technology; Forecasting; Geochemistry; Geography; Groundwater - chemistry; Models, Theoretical; Natural water pollution; Pollution; Pollution, environment geology; Sulfur; Surface water; Water Pollutants, Chemical - analysis; Water treatment and pollution; Europe; ANE, Europe; Performance evaluation; Atmospheric fallout; Environmental policy; Pollution control; Acidification; Forecast model; Ground truth; Modeling; Acid precipitation; Hydrochemistry; Selfpurification; Long range pollutant transport; Surface water; Transfrontier pollution; Water pollution; Pollution abatement
• ISSN: 0013-936X; 1520-5851
• DOI: 10.1021/es502533c

In 1999 we used the MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments) model to project acidification of acid-sensitive European surface waters in the year 2010, given implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP). A total of 202 sites in 10 regions in Europe were studied. These forecasts can now be compared with measurements for the year 2010, to give a “ground truth” evaluation of the model. The prerequisite for this test is that the actual sulfur and nitrogen deposition decreased from 1995 to 2010 by the same amount as that used to drive the model forecasts; this was largely the case for sulfur, but less so for nitrogen, and the simulated surface water [NO3 –] reflected this difference. For most of the sites, predicted surface water recovery from acidification for the year 2010 is very close to the actual recovery observed from measured data, as recovery is predominantly driven by reductions in sulfur deposition. Overall these results show that MAGIC successfully predicts future water chemistry given known changes in acid deposition.