Causal versus diagnostic contingencies: On self-deception and on the voter's illusion

• Published in: Journal of personality and social psychology Vol. 46; no. 2; pp. 237 - 248
• Main Authors: Quattrone, George A, Tversky, Amos
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington, DC American Psychological Association 01-02-1984
• Subjects: Biological and medical sciences; Choice Behavior; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Health Behavior; Human; Miscellaneous; Perception; Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry; Psychology. Psychophysiology; Self-Deception; Voting Behavior; Physical exercise; Human; Temperature; Pain; Experimental study; Expectation
• ISSN: 0022-3514; 1939-1315
• DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.46.2.237

Two experiments tested the notion that people select actions that are diagnostic of favorable outcomes even though the actions do not cause those outcomes. In Exp I, 38 undergraduates immersed their forearm into a chest of circulating cold water before and after physical exercise. Depending on condition, Ss learned that a long life expectancy was associated with either increases or decreases in tolerance to cold water after the exercise. As predicted, Ss showed changes in tolerance on the 2nd trial in the direction correlated with a long, healthy life. In Exp II, 315 undergraduates encountered 1 of 2 theories about the sort of voters who determine the margin of victory in an election. Only one of the theories would enable voting Ss to imagine that they could induce other like-minded persons to vote. As predicted, more Ss indicated that they would vote given that theory than given a theory in which the S's vote would not be diagnostic of the electoral outcome, although the causal impact of the S's vote was the same under both theories. (14 ref)