Taking Into Account the Strength of an Alternative Hypothesis

• Published in: Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition Vol. 24; no. 3; pp. 771 - 792
• Main Author: McKenzie, Craig R. M
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington, DC American Psychological Association 01-05-1998
• Subjects: Biological and medical sciences; Cognition & reasoning; Cognition. Intelligence; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Human; Hypothesis Testing; Judgment; Miscellaneous; Probability Learning; Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry; Psychology. Psychophysiology; Uncertainty; Human; Uncertainty; Cognition; Experimental study; Hypothesis; Judgment
• ISSN: 0278-7393; 1939-1285
• DOI: 10.1037/0278-7393.24.3.771

A common phenomenon in judgment under uncertainty is that
alternative hypotheses are underweighted or ignored. This article
addresses when and how the strength of the alternative is taken into
account when there are 2 hypotheses. A learning manipulation was
used to invoke 2 representations of 2 illnesses in a medical
diagnosis task. One representation tended to lead to consideration
of the alternative when, for example, requesting new information, reporting confidence, and making diagnoses. The other representation
tended to result in ignoring or underweighting the alternative, but
a simple change in how confidence was probed increased consideration
of the alternative. Costs and benefits of each representation are
discussed.