Holocene Sea-Level Rise and the Fate of Mangrove Forests within the Wider Caribbean Region

• Published in: Journal of coastal research Vol. 10; no. 4; pp. 1077 - 1086
• Main Authors: Randall W. Parkinson, Ron D. De Laune, White, John R.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Lawrence, KS Coastal Education and Research Foundation (CERF) 1994; Coastal Education and Research Foundation
• Subjects: Arithmetic mean; Brackish; Carbonates; Climate change; Coastal oceanography, estuaries. Regional oceanography; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Geology; Mangrove forests; Marine and continental quaternary; Peat; Physics of the oceans; Sea level; Sea level rise; Sediments; Surficial geology; Wetlands; Caribbean region; Caribbean Region; Forests; Accretion; changes of level; Quaternary; Paleooceanography; Accretion rate; marshes; Compaction; Sea level; Sediments; Peat; Wetlands; Salt marsh; Mangrove; Sea current; Carbonates; Holocene; Climate modification; Organic residues
• EISSN: 1551-5036
• ISSN: 0749-0208

This paper (1) reviews mangrove forest peat accretion data obtained from carbonate settings of the Wider Caribbean Region and (2) evaluates the fate of these forests based upon current global eustatic sea-level rise projections. Historical peat accretion rates calculated using137Cs or210Pb average 3.7 mm yr-1. Peat accretion rates calculated using14C average 1.0 mm yr-1. The discrepancy between historical and geological accretion rates, also recognized in salt marsh settings, is attributed to organic decomposition and sediment compaction. Our conceptual model, which is based upon comparisons between projected rates of global eustatic sea-level rise and peat accretion, predicts stable forest conditions only if historical accretion rates persist during a conservative (low) sea-level rise of ~1.3 mm yr-1. Best guess (middle) and high estimates of a sea-level rise of as much as 8 mm yr-1will likely submerge mangrove forests located within carbonate settings of the Wider Caribbean Region.