The Role of the Economy, Security and Party Leader Acceptance in Forecasting the 2020 General Election in Jamaica

The Role of the Economy, Security and Party Leader Acceptance in Forecasting the 2020 General Election in Jamaica

Three econometric models were built between January and March 2020 to predict the September 3, 2020 General Election in Jamaica. These are the economics and security model (model1), the economics and security model with JLP leader acceptance (model 2), and the economics and security model with PNP l...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Revista latinoamericana de opinión pública Vol. 11; no. 1; p. 109
Main Authors: Charles, Christopher A. D., Dempster, Dalkeith, Welcome, Trevaun
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Salamanca Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca 22-06-2022
Subjects:
Anglophones
caribbean
Economic models
Economics
Election forecasting
election outcomes
Labor parties
macroeconomy
Panel data
party leader acceptance
Political parties
Security
Voters
Jamaica
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Summary:Three econometric models were built between January and March 2020 to predict the September 3, 2020 General Election in Jamaica. These are the economics and security model (model1), the economics and security model with JLP leader acceptance (model 2), and the economics and security model with PNP leader acceptance (model 3). All three models accurately predicted a win for the Jamaica Labour Party. A Jack-knife resampling was performed for cross validation. These models show how the macro-economy, security concerns and party leader popularity influence election outcomes, with similar findings in the literature. However, there are peculiarities in the Anglophone Caribbean because the Jamaican voters respond to economic and security concerns in different ways than the voters in the global north. For example, increases in the debt to GDP ratio and the homicide rate predicted a JLP win. This work should be replicated in the Caribbean and Latin America using panel data.
ISSN:1852-9003
2660-700X
2660-700X
DOI:10.14201/rlop.25430