The effect of eviction moratoria on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here we model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical metropolitan area. We recreate a range of urban epidemic trajec...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Nature communications Vol. 12; no. 1; p. 2274
Main Authors:	Nande, Anjalika, Sheen, Justin, Walters, Emma L., Klein, Brennan, Chinazzi, Matteo, Gheorghe, Andrei H., Adlam, Ben, Shinnick, Julianna, Tejeda, Maria Florencia, Scarpino, Samuel V., Vespignani, Alessandro, Greenlee, Andrew J., Schneider, Daniel, Levy, Michael Z., Hill, Alison L.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	London Nature Publishing Group UK 15-04-2021 Nature Publishing Group Nature Portfolio
Subjects:	631/326/1762 639/705/1041 692/699/255/2514 Cities Cities - legislation & jurisprudence Cities - statistics & numerical data Communicable Disease Control - legislation & jurisprudence Communicable Disease Control - methods Computer Simulation Coronaviruses COVID-19 COVID-19 - economics COVID-19 - epidemiology COVID-19 - transmission COVID-19 - virology Disease transmission Epidemics Evictions Households Housing - economics Housing - legislation & jurisprudence Humanities and Social Sciences Humans Metropolitan areas Models, Statistical multidisciplinary Neighborhoods Pandemics Pandemics - prevention & control Philadelphia - epidemiology Policy SARS-CoV-2 - pathogenicity Science Science (multidisciplinary) Severe acute respiratory syndrome Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Unemployment - statistics & numerical data Urban areas Urban environments Urban Population - statistics & numerical data Viral diseases Philadelphia Cities United States > US
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Summary:	Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here we model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical metropolitan area. We recreate a range of urban epidemic trajectories and project the course of the epidemic under two counterfactual scenarios, one in which a strict moratorium on evictions is in place and enforced, and another in which evictions are allowed to resume at baseline or increased rates. We find, across scenarios, that evictions lead to significant increases in infections. Applying our model to Philadelphia using locally-specific parameters shows that the increase is especially profound in models that consider realistically heterogenous cities in which both evictions and contacts occur more frequently in poorer neighborhoods. Our results provide a basis to assess eviction moratoria and show that policies to stem evictions are a warranted and important component of COVID-19 control. Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here, the authors model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical and applied urban settings.
Bibliography:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	2041-1723 2041-1723
DOI:	10.1038/s41467-021-22521-5