Simulating the characteristics of tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean using a Stretched-Grid Global Climate Model

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural phenomena. This study examines the capability of a global climate model with grid stretching (CAM-EULAG, hereafter CEU) in simulating the characteristics of TCs over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO). In the study, CEU is applied with...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Climate dynamics Vol. 50; no. 5-6; pp. 1581 - 1596
Main Authors:	Maoyi, Molulaqhooa L., Abiodun, Babatunde J., Prusa, Joseph M., Veitch, Jennifer J.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01-03-2018 Springer
Subjects:	Climatology Earth and Environmental Science Earth Sciences Forecasts and trends Geophysics/Geodesy Oceanography Tropical cyclones Indian Ocean Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Tropical Cyclones (TC) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) Genesis Location
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Summary:	Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural phenomena. This study examines the capability of a global climate model with grid stretching (CAM-EULAG, hereafter CEU) in simulating the characteristics of TCs over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO). In the study, CEU is applied with a variable increment global grid that has a fine horizontal grid resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) over the SWIO and coarser resolution (1° × 1°—2° × 2.25°) over the rest of the globe. The simulation is performed for the 11 years (1999–2010) and validated against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track data, global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) satellite data, and ERA-Interim (ERAINT) reanalysis. CEU gives a realistic simulation of the SWIO climate and shows some skill in simulating the spatial distribution of TC genesis locations and tracks over the basin. However, there are some discrepancies between the observed and simulated climatic features over the Mozambique channel (MC). Over MC, CEU simulates a substantial cyclonic feature that produces a higher number of TC than observed. The dynamical structure and intensities of the CEU TCs compare well with observation, though the model struggles to produce TCs with a deep pressure centre as low as the observed. The reanalysis has the same problem. The model captures the monthly variation of TC occurrence well but struggles to reproduce the interannual variation. The results of this study have application in improving and adopting CEU for seasonal forecasting over the SWIO.
ISSN:	0930-7575 1432-0894
DOI:	10.1007/s00382-017-3706-x