Accessing Insurance Flood Losses Using a Catastrophe Model and Climate Change Scenarios

Accessing Insurance Flood Losses Using a Catastrophe Model and Climate Change Scenarios

Impact Forecasting has developed a catastrophe flood model for Czechia to estimate insurance losses. The model is built on a dataset of 12,066 years of daily rainfall and temperature data for the European area, representing the current climate (LAERTES-EU). This dataset was used as input to the rain...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate (Basel) Vol. 10; no. 5; p. 67
Main Authors: Ladislav Palán, Michal Matyáš, Monika Váľková, Vít Kovačka, Eva Pažourková, Petr Punčochář
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 01-05-2022
Subjects:
catastrophe modelling in insurance
Czechia
flood frequency under climate change
hydrological modelling
insurance losses
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Impact Forecasting has developed a catastrophe flood model for Czechia to estimate insurance losses. The model is built on a dataset of 12,066 years of daily rainfall and temperature data for the European area, representing the current climate (LAERTES-EU). This dataset was used as input to the rainfall–runoff model, resulting in a series of daily river channel discharges. Using analyses of global and regional climate models dealing with the impacts of climate change, this dataset was adjusted for the individual RCP climate scenarios in Europe. The river channel discharges were then re-derived using the already calibrated rainfall–runoff models. Based on the changed discharges, alternative versions of the standard catastrophe flood model for the Czechia were created for the various climate scenarios. In outputs, differences in severity, intensity, and number of events might be observed, as well as the size of storms. The effect on the losses might be investigated by probable maximum losses (PML) curves and average annual loss (AAL) values. For return period 1 in 5 years for the worst-case scenario, the differences can be up to +125 percent increase in insurance losses, while for the return period 1 in 100 years it is a −40 percent decrease. There is no significant effect of adaptation measures for the return period 1 in 100 years, but there is a −20 percent decrease in the return period 1 in 5 years.
ISSN:2225-1154
DOI:10.3390/cli10050067