Prioritizing emerging zoonoses in the Netherlands

To support the development of early warning and surveillance systems of emerging zoonoses, we present a general method to prioritize pathogens using a quantitative, stochastic multi-criteria model, parameterized for the Netherlands. A risk score was based on seven criteria, reflecting assessments of...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	PloS one Vol. 5; no. 11; p. e13965
Main Authors:	Havelaar, Arie H, van Rosse, Floor, Bucura, Catalin, Toetenel, Milou A, Haagsma, Juanita A, Kurowicka, Dorota, Heesterbeek, J Hans A P, Speybroeck, Niko, Langelaar, Merel F M, van der Giessen, Johanna W B, Cooke, Roger M, Braks, Marieta A H
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	United States Public Library of Science 15-11-2010 Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Subjects:	Algorithms Analysis Animals Campylobacter Communicable Diseases, Emerging - epidemiology Communicable Diseases, Emerging - transmission Consortia Decision making Disease control Disease Reservoirs - microbiology Disease Reservoirs - parasitology Disease Reservoirs - virology diseases Domestic animals Early warning systems Encephalitis Epidemiology Health services Humans infections Infectious diseases Knowledge management Livestock Methods Models, Biological Multiple criterion Netherlands - epidemiology Pathogens Public health Public Health and Epidemiology/Epidemiology Public Health and Epidemiology/Infectious Diseases Public Health and Epidemiology/Preventive Medicine Risk Stochastic models Stochasticity Surveillance systems Urban farming Vector-borne diseases Vectors (Biology) Viruses West Nile virus Wildlife Zoonoses Zoonoses - epidemiology Zoonoses - transmission Netherlands Belgium
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Summary:	To support the development of early warning and surveillance systems of emerging zoonoses, we present a general method to prioritize pathogens using a quantitative, stochastic multi-criteria model, parameterized for the Netherlands. A risk score was based on seven criteria, reflecting assessments of the epidemiology and impact of these pathogens on society. Criteria were weighed, based on the preferences of a panel of judges with a background in infectious disease control. Pathogens with the highest risk for the Netherlands included pathogens in the livestock reservoir with a high actual human disease burden (e.g. Campylobacter spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Coxiella burnetii) or a low current but higher historic burden (e.g. Mycobacterium bovis), rare zoonotic pathogens in domestic animals with severe disease manifestations in humans (e.g. BSE prion, Capnocytophaga canimorsus) as well as arthropod-borne and wildlife associated pathogens which may pose a severe risk in future (e.g. Japanese encephalitis virus and West-Nile virus). These agents are key targets for development of early warning and surveillance.
Bibliography:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 Conceived and designed the experiments: AHH JAPH RMC. Performed the experiments: FvR. Analyzed the data: FvR CB MAT DK NS. Wrote the paper: AHH FvR DK JAPH MAHB. Designed and performed panel sessions: FvR JAH. Collected and interpreted literature data: MAT MFML JWBvdG MAHB.
ISSN:	1932-6203 1932-6203
DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0013965