Dramatic cropland expansion in Myanmar following political reforms threatens biodiversity

Effective conservation planning needs to consider the threats of cropland expansion to biodiversity. We used Myanmar as a case study to devise a modeling framework to identify which Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are most vulnerable to cropland expansion in a context of increasingly resolved armed co...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Scientific reports Vol. 8; no. 1; pp. 16558 - 10
Main Authors:	Zhang, Yuchen, Prescott, Graham W., Tay, Rebecca E., Dickens, Borame L., Webb, Edward L., Htun, Saw, Tizard, Robert J., Rao, Madhu, Carrasco, Luis Roman
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	London Nature Publishing Group UK 08-11-2018 Nature Publishing Group
Subjects:	631/158/1144 631/158/672 631/158/843 704/172/4081 704/844/2787 Agricultural economics Agricultural land Animal models Biodiversity Biodiversity hot spots Conservation Crops Deforestation Economic development Humanities and Social Sciences Land use multidisciplinary Politics Protected areas Science Science (multidisciplinary) Tropical environments Myanmar (Burma) Socio-political Stability Cropland Expansion Cropland Distribution Export Crops Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs)
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Summary:	Effective conservation planning needs to consider the threats of cropland expansion to biodiversity. We used Myanmar as a case study to devise a modeling framework to identify which Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are most vulnerable to cropland expansion in a context of increasingly resolved armed conflict. We studied 13 major crops with the potential to expand into KBAs. We used mixed-effects models and an agricultural versus forest rent framework to model current land use and conversion of forests to cropland for each crop. We found that the current cropland distribution is explained by higher agricultural value, lower transportation costs and lower elevation. We also found that protected areas and socio-political instability are effective in slowing down deforestation with conflicts in Myanmar damaging farmland and displacing farmers elsewhere. Under plausible economic development and socio-political stability scenarios, the models forecast 48.5% of land to be converted. We identified export crops such as maize, and pigeon pea as key deforestation drivers. This cropland expansion would pose a major threat to Myanmar’s freshwater KBAs. We highlight the importance of considering rapid land-use transitions in the tropics to devise robust conservation plans.
Bibliography:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	2045-2322 2045-2322
DOI:	10.1038/s41598-018-34974-8