Search Results - "Tayman, Jeff"

The Accuracy of Hamilton–Perry Population Projections for Census Tracts in the United States by Baker, Jack, Swanson, David, Tayman, Jeff

“…In a first-ever nation-wide census tract evaluation, we assess the accuracy of the Hamilton–Perry population projection method for 65,221 census tracts. We…”
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Using Synthetic Adjustments and Controlling to Improve County Population Forecasts from the Hamilton–Perry Method by Tayman, Jeff, Swanson, David A., Baker, Jack

“…Tayman and Swanson (J Popul Res 34(3):209–231, 2017) found in Washington State counties that a forecast based on the Hamilton–Perry method using a synthetic…”
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MAPE-R: a rescaled measure of accuracy for cross-sectional subnational population forecasts by Swanson, David A., Tayman, Jeff, Bryan, T. M.

“…Accurately measuring a population and its attributes at past, present, and future points in time has been of great interest to demographers. Within discussions…”
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Boosted Regression Trees for Small-Area Population Forecasting by Baker, Jack, Swanson, David, Tayman, Jeff

“…Small-area population forecasting, such as the forecasting of age/gender groupings at the level of US Census Tracts, is challenged by thorny issues including…”
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Assessing Uncertainty in Small Area Forecasts: State of the Practice and Implementation Strategy by Tayman, Jeff

“…Forecasts are needed for everyday decisions and must be in the form of numbers. Yet forecasts invariably turn out to be different than the numbers that…”
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A Note on the Measurement of Accuracy for Subnational Demographic Estimates by Swanson, David A., Tayman, Jeff, Barr, Charles F.

“…Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the measure most often used for evaluating subnational demographic estimates, is not always valid. We describe…”
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Using modified cohort change and child-woman ratios in the Hamilton–Perry forecasting method by Tayman, Jeff, Swanson, David A.

“…The Hamilton–Perry method, which uses cohort change ratios (CCR) and child-woman ratios (CWR), has gained acceptance as research has demonstrated its practical…”
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Evaluating Population Forecast Accuracy: A Regression Approach Using County Data by Tayman, Jeff, Smith, Stanley K., Rayer, Stefan

“…Many studies have evaluated the impact of differences in population size and growth rate on population forecast accuracy. Virtually all these studies have been…”
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Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts by Rayer, Stefan, Smith, Stanley K, Tayman, Jeff

“…Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations…”
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Precision, Bias, and Uncertainty for State Population Forecasts: An Exploratory Analysis of Time Series Models by Tayman, Jeff, Smith, Stanley K., Lin, Jeffrey

“…Many researchers have used time series models to construct population forecasts and prediction intervals at the national level, but few have evaluated the…”
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An Evaluation of Population Projections by Age by Smith, Stanley K., Tayman, Jeff

“…A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age…”
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The Accuracy of Small-Area Population Forecasts Based On A Spatial Interaction Land-Use Modeling System by Tayman, Jeff

“…As a result of the ISTEA and Clean Air Act legislation, more agencies are using or will be required to use spatial interaction land-use models to develop…”
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On the Validity of MAPE as a Measure of Population Forecast Accuracy by Tayman, Jeff, Swanson, David A.

“…The mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is the summary measure most often used for evaluating the accuracy of population forecasts. While MAPE has many…”
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Forecasting, Growth Management and Public Policy Decision Making by Tayman, Jeff

“…This paper's objective is to describe the interplay between forecasting and decision making. It shows how a forecast helped shape public policy and, in turn,…”
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The Role of Population Size in the Determination and Prediction of Population Forecast Errors: An Evaluation Using Confidence Intervals for Subcounty Areas by Tayman, Jeff, Schafer, Edward, Carter, Lawrence

“…Producers of population forecasts acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in trying to predict the future and should warn about the likely error of their…”
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On the Utility of Population Forecasts by Tayman, Jeff, Swanson, David A.

“…Many customers demand population forecasts, particularly for small areas. Although the forecast evaluation literature is extensive, it is dominated by a focus…”
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Between a Rock and a Hard Place: The Evaluation of Demographic Forecasts by Swanson, David A., Tayman, Jeff

“…Forecasting, in general, has been described as an unavoidable yet impossible task. This irony, which comprises the 'rock' and the 'hard place' in the title,…”
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In Search of the Ideal Measure of Accuracy for Subnational Demographic Forecasts by Tayman, Jeff, Swanson, David A., Barr, Charles F.

“…We examine nonlinear transformations of the forecast error distribution in hopes of finding a summary error measure that is not prone to an upward bias and…”
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Toward a Causal Model of Drug Use by Tayman, Jeff, Pennell, Susan

“…Drug use remains a serious concern in neighborhoods and at all levels of government. Formulating drug policy requires sound information regarding the…”
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Postcensal Estimates of Household Income Distributions by Fonseca, Lois, Tayman, Jeff

“…This article develops and evaluates a method for deriving postcensal estimates of household income distributions for counties. A modified lognormal probability…”
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