Climate Change and Stability of Urban Infrastructure in Russian Permafrost Regions: Prognostic Assessment based on GCM Climate Projections

Climate Change and Stability of Urban Infrastructure in Russian Permafrost Regions: Prognostic Assessment based on GCM Climate Projections

One of the most significant climate change impacts on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost, which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. We estimate potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geographical review Vol. 107; no. 1; pp. 125 - 142
Main Authors: Shiklomanov, Nikolay I., Streletskiy, Dmitry A., Swales, Timothy B., Kokorev, Vasily A.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: New York Taylor & Francis 01-01-2017
American Geographical Society
Taylor & Francis Ltd
Subjects:
Analysis
Climate Change
Climate models
Construction
Engineering
Global temperature changes
Infrastructure
Infrastructure (Economics)
Mechanical properties
Migration
Performance evaluation
Permafrost
Permafrost Infrastructure
Precipitation
Public infrastructure
Russia
Russian Arctic Cities
Socioeconomic factors
Arctic Ocean
Russia
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Summary:One of the most significant climate change impacts on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost, which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. We estimate potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to the projected climatic changes provided by six preselected General Circulation Models (GCMs) participated in the most recent Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). The analysis was conducted for the entire extent of the Russian permafrost-affected area. According to our analysis a significant (at least 25%) climate-induced reduction in the urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian permafrost region should be expected by the mid-21st century. However, the high uncertainty, resulting from the GCM-produced climate projections, prohibits definitive conclusion about the rate and magnitude of potential climate impacts on permafrost infrastructure. Results presented in this paper can serve as guidelines for developing adequate adaptation and mitigation strategy for Russian northern cities.
Bibliography:This research was supported by U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) grants PLR‐1231294, PLR‐1304555, ICER‐1558389 to the George Washington University and by the Russian Science Foundation (RSF) grant 14‐17‐00037 to the State Hydrological Institute, Russia. Opinions, findings, conclusions, and recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF or RSF. We are grateful to three anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions to improve the manuscript.
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ISSN:0016-7428
1931-0846
DOI:10.1111/gere.12214