Early mandated social distancing is a strong predictor of reduction in peak daily new COVID-19 cases

Early mandated social distancing is a strong predictor of reduction in peak daily new COVID-19 cases

Mandated social distancing has been applied globally to reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the beneficial effects of this community-based intervention have not been proven or quantified for the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a regional population-level observational study...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Public health (London) Vol. 190; pp. 160 - 167
Main Authors: Qureshi, A.I., Suri, M.F.K., Chu, H., Suri, H.K., Suri, A.K.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Netherlands Elsevier Ltd 01-01-2021
Elsevier Science Ltd
Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Royal Society for Public Health
Subjects:
Community-based programs
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - prevention & control
Disease control
Disease Outbreaks - prevention & control
Humans
Infection Control
Mandated social distancing
Mandatory Programs
Original Research
Outbreaks
Pandemics
Physical Distancing
Population studies
Public Policy
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2
Social distancing
Subgroups
Time Factors
Timing
United States
Viral diseases
United States
COVID-19
Mandated social distancing
Quarantine
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Summary:Mandated social distancing has been applied globally to reduce the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the beneficial effects of this community-based intervention have not been proven or quantified for the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a regional population-level observational study. Using publicly available data, we examined the effect of timing of mandated social distancing on the rate of COVID-19 cases in 119 geographic regions, derived from 41 states within the United States and 78 other countries. The highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day recorded within a geographic unit was the primary outcome. The total number of COVID-19 cases in regions where case numbers had reached the tail end of the outbreak was an exploratory outcome. We found that the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day per million persons was significantly associated with the total number of COVID-19 cases per million persons on the day before mandated social distancing (β = 0.66, P < 0.0001). These findings suggest that if mandated social distancing is not initiated until the number of existing COVID-19 cases has doubled, the eventual peak would result in 58% more COVID-19 cases per day. Subgroup analysis on those regions where the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day has peaked showed increase in β values to 0.85 (P < 0.0001). The total number of cases during the outbreak in a region was strongly predicted by the total number of COVID-19 cases on the day before mandated social distancing (β = 0.97, P < 0.0001). Initiating mandated social distancing when the numbers of COVID-19 cases are low within a region significantly reduces the number of new daily COVID-19 cases and perhaps also reduces the total number of cases in the region. •The number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases at the time of mandated social distancing in a region is a strong predictor of peak daily new cases.•Early mandated social distancing significantly reduces the number of daily new COVID-19 cases in the region.•Early mandated social distancing also likely significantly reduces the total number of COVID-19 cases in the region.
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Joint first authors.
ISSN:0033-3506
1476-5616
DOI:10.1016/j.puhe.2020.10.015