Projected increase in obesity and non‐alcoholic‐steatohepatitis–related liver transplantation waitlist additions in the United States

Projected increase in obesity and non‐alcoholic‐steatohepatitis–related liver transplantation waitlist additions in the United States

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) cirrhosis is the fastest growing indication for liver transplantation (LT) in the United States. We aimed to determine the temporal trend behind the rise in obesity and NASH‐related additions to the LT waitlist in the United States and make projections for future...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.) Vol. 70; no. 2; pp. 487 - 495
Main Authors: Parikh, Neehar D., Marrero, Wesley J., Wang, Jingyuan, Steuer, Justin, Tapper, Elliot B., Konerman, Monica, Singal, Amit G., Hutton, David W., Byon, Eunshin, Lavieri, Mariel S.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: United States Wiley Subscription Services, Inc 01-08-2019
Subjects:
Census
Census of Population
Cirrhosis
Hepatology
Liver cirrhosis
Liver transplantation
Liver transplants
Obesity
Public health
Trends
United States > US
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Summary:Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) cirrhosis is the fastest growing indication for liver transplantation (LT) in the United States. We aimed to determine the temporal trend behind the rise in obesity and NASH‐related additions to the LT waitlist in the United States and make projections for future NASH burden on the LT waitlist. We used data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database from 2000 to 2014 to obtain the number of NASH‐related LT waitlist additions. The obese population in the United States from 2000 to 2014 was estimated using data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Based on obesity trends, we established a time lag between obesity prevalence and NASH‐related waitlist additions. We used data from the U.S. Census Bureau on population projections from 2016 to 2030 to forecast obesity estimates and NASH‐related LT waitlist additions. From 2000 to 2014, the proportion of obese individuals significantly increased 44.9% and the number of NASH‐related annual waitlist additions increased from 391 to 1,605. Increase in obesity prevalence was strongly associated with LT waitlist additions 9 years later in derivation and validation cohorts (R2 = 0.9). Based on these data, annual NASH‐related waitlist additions are anticipated to increase by 55.4% (1,354‐2,104) between 2016 and 2030. There is significant regional variation in obesity rates and in the anticipated increase in NASH‐related waitlist additions (P < 0.01). Conclusion: We project a marked increase in demand for LT for NASH given population obesity trends. Continued public health efforts to curb obesity prevalence are needed to reduce the projected future burden of NASH. (Hepatology 2017).
Bibliography:See Editorial on Page
462
Potential conflict of interest: Dr. Singal advises and is on the speakers' bureau for Gilead and Bayer.
These authors contributed to this work equally and are co‐first authors.
Part of the data reported here have been supplied by the United Network for Organ Sharing as the contractor for the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. The interpretation and reporting of these data are the responsibility of the author(s) and in no way should be seen as an official policy of or interpretation by the OPTN or the U.S. government.
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ISSN:0270-9139
1527-3350
DOI:10.1002/hep.29473